338 Sunday Update: Against the Odds, Liberals Lead as Writ Drops

The Liberals start the campaign ahead, but it’s a long and bumpy road to 172.

Ladies and gentlemen, start your engines. Later today, the 45th Canadian general election campaign will officially begin. The incumbent Liberal Party of Canada is seeking a rare fourth consecutive term, while the Conservatives hope to secure their first general election victory since 2011.

For regular readers of this newsletter, the numbers at the starting line may no longer come as a surprise. But for more casual observers, it might be quite a shock to discover that the Liberals—after trailing the Conservatives by 15, 20, even 25 points in the polls over the past two years—are entering this campaign in a favourable position.

But nothing is set in stone. Federal campaigns that end with the same numbers as they began are the exception, not the rule. The voters now supporting the Liberals—many of whom had kept quiet or leaned toward other parties over the past two years—do not represent a rock-solid base. These are voters who recently switched allegiance and could switch again. The Liberals are in no position to take anything for granted.

Let’s review the newest data and update the 338Canada federal projections.

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