338 Sunday Update: A New Year, A Steeper Hill for the LPC

Numbers show a bleak outlook for the governing Liberals as election year begins.

Happy Sunday morning, dear 338Canada readers,

As we enter an election year in Canada, the incumbent Liberals find themselves in their deepest hole yet. We wouldn’t blame you if this statement sounded like a broken record—I’ve written it several times over the past 16 months. Yet, it holds true according to the numbers in this opening week of 2025.

Usually, pollsters take a break during the Christmas and holiday season, as do politicians, much of the media covering the Hill, commentators, and, frankly, most voters. But the Angus Reid Institute (ARI) conducted and published a rare holiday poll, whose numbers suggest that the tumultuous last week of the fall sitting—the Freeland resignation, the $60B+ projected deficit, the hurried cabinet shuffle, and the numerous and still-growing calls for the PM to step down—have pushed the Liberals even further down in public opinion.

Let us breakdown the numbers and update the 338 federal projection — the first of many updates to come in 2025.

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