338 Sunday Update: A High Plateau for the Liberals—Now Comes Lewis
Polling suggests the winter Liberal surge may have peaked as the federal NDP enters a new chapter.
Live from Winnipeg: happy Sunday morning, dear readers,
The federal New Democrats have a new permanent leader. Eleven months after the party’s crushing election result and the resignation of Jagmeet Singh, Avi Lewis takes the reins of the left-of-centre party—a significant step in its rebuilding, according to several members I spoke to on the convention floor.
Avi Lewis handily won the NDP leadership on the first ballot with close to 56% of the votes.
Recent polls suggest the new NDP leader is not yet widely known to voters outside NDP and labour circles. Still, the arrival of a new leader on the federal scene is always an opportunity to draw a line in the sand. We will keep a close eye on whether the needle moves for the NDP in the coming months—and, if so, at whose expense.
Before we go further, as was the case at the Conservative Convention in Calgary, I would like to thank the many 338Canada readers and subscribers who came up to chat and discuss polls and projections. I sincerely appreciate the kind words.
Let’s recap the past week in the polls and update the federal projection.
Abacus Data: LPC +7
New federal numbers from Abacus Data were released this morning. The top-line figures are largely unchanged from recent weeks: 44% Liberals, 37% Conservatives, 9% NDP.
Regionally, the Liberals hold a 7-point advantage in Ontario, a 13-point lead in Quebec (over the Bloc), and a 12-point edge over the Conservatives in British Columbia.
Below are Abacus’ federal numbers since the New Year. While there has been some natural fluctuation, the overall picture has remained remarkably stable since mid-February. The Liberals have polled 44%, 44%, 46%, and 44% in the firm’s last four releases. The Conservatives have registered 37%, 38%, 35%, and 37%.
The Liberals remain in a clearly favourable position—but they may have reached a ceiling.
Read Abacus’ full report here, including updated data on leaders and issues.
Nanos Research: Liberals 46%, Conservatives 33%
After four consecutive weeks of rising numbers, the Liberals may also have plateaued in the Nanos Research tracker. The latest wave (Feb. 27 to March 20, 2026) has the Liberals at 46% nationwide, compared to 33% for the Conservatives.
Compared to the previous four-week wave (ending February 20), the Liberals are up five points (from 41% to 46%), while the Conservatives are essentially unchanged (-1).
The preferred prime minister tracker also appears to have stabilized—albeit at a high level—for Mark Carney. He is the choice of 55% of respondents, compared to 22% for Pierre Poilievre, with no significant movement from the previous wave.
Read last week’s Nanos tracker report here.
Also released last week was the latest Liaison Strategies tracker. See the numbers here and read the full report here.
Now let’s get to this week’s 338Canada projection update.
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