338 Sunday Update: A Cross-Country Snapshot
Federal numbers, Quebec's new electoral map, and fresh projections from Ontario, Nova Scotia and Manitoba.
🍁Happy Sunday, dear 338Canada readers,
This is not a post about the men’s national soccer team, but what a game that was. On to the round of 16 we go on Saturday—against either Morocco or The Netherlands.
Back to politics.
The second half of June brought a flurry of new polls, both federally and provincially, prompting updates across much of the 338Canada network. Let's dive right in.
Federal Update
On the federal front, the latest monthly survey from Léger showed more of the same from previous months, with the Liberals holding a 14-point lead over the Conservatives. We broke the poll down in detail earlier this week. Here are the topline numbers:
Unlike most active firms since spring, Léger continues to see no bounce whatsoever for the NDP since members selected Avi Lewis as the party's new leader in late March. Léger measured NDP support at 6% nationally for the fourth consecutive month—a number that matches the party's disastrous result in the 2025 federal election.
Eric and I broke that poll down in the latest episode of The Numbers:
While Léger places the Liberals at the top of the current polling range with 48%, it pegs the Conservatives at 34%—almost exactly in the middle of the current bracket.
The picture becomes clearer when looking across all active firms. Here are the latest federal polls released over the past month:
Liberal support currently ranges from 41% to 48%, while the Conservatives sit between 32% and 37%. Excluding Léger's 6%, NDP support ranges from 9% to 14%.
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The latest 338Canada federal projection gives Mark Carney's Liberals an average ten-point advantage over the Conservatives.
Because the polling averages have remained remarkably stable for several weeks, changes in the seat projection are mostly marginal. The Liberals remain well ahead of the pack with an average of 207 seats, compared to 102 for the Conservatives. The Bloc Québécois averages 21 seats and the NDP 11.
The 338Canada government approval tracker also remains firmly in positive territory for the Carney government: 56% approval versus 35% disapproval, for a net rating of +21.
Find all the federal numbers here.
Quebec update on new 127-seat map
It became official earlier this month: after months of waiting, the new Quebec electoral map is now live on 338 Quebec (and in French on Qc125).
Two new seats have been added to the National Assembly: Bellefeuille in the Laurentians and Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie in the Centre-du-Québec region. Both currently lean toward the Parti Québécois, though the CAQ could make them competitive if Premier Christine Fréchette continues to revive her party’s fortunes.
Here is the latest Quebec projection. Notice how much wider the PQ and CAQ distributions have become. That’s no coincidence: the two parties’ seat projections are highly correlated.
The latest Quebec projection is available here.
338 Ontario Update
There is also a fair amount of disagreement over where the race in Ontario currently stands. Recent polls from Liaison Strategies and Spark Advocacy show a dead heat between Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives and the leaderless Ontario Liberals. Meanwhile, the latest Abacus Data poll, first published in the Toronto Star, still places the PCs north of 40% province-wide: 41% PC to 32% OLP.
Here is the latest 338 Ontario seat projection. With current numbers, the most likely outcome remains a PC minority government, averaging 55 seats, compared with 38 for the Liberals and 28 for the Ontario NDP.
As with the federal race, trust the average. See all the numbers from this Ontario update here.
Nova Scotia Update
We hadn’t updated the Nova Scotia projection since winter because the electoral map was changing and we were waiting for the legislature’s newest riding to be added.
In last week’s by-election, Tim Houston’s PC candidate Claude Bourgeois won the inaugural contest in Chéticamp-Margarees-Pleasant Bay by nine points over the Liberals.
See all the numbers from this Nova Scotia update here.
Manitoba Update: Kinew on cruise control
There is little sign of a competitive race developing in Manitoba.
The latest quarterly Probe Research poll gave Wab Kinew's NDP a commanding 23-point province-wide lead over the Progressive Conservatives, fully in line with previous Probe surveys.
We updated the Manitoba projection and, unsurprisingly, the NDP remains comfortably alone on top with an average of 40 seats, compared with 18 for the PCs.
Read all the details from this Manitoba projection here.
That will be all for tonight.
And again: Hell, yeah—Go Canada! ⚽
As always, thanks to all subscribers of the 338Canada newsletter.🍁❤️