338 Sunday Update: A Competitive Race, Even as Poilievre’s Numbers Slide

The Angus Reid Institute finds Poilievre at his lowest point yet — even as Liberals and Conservatives remain locked in a close national race.

The federal government passed its first budget last week, thanks to four abstentions on the confidence motion — two from the NDP caucus and two from the Conservatives. Green leader (and sole GPC MP) Elizabeth May voted with the Liberals, while all 22 Bloc Québécois MPs voted against.

That we witnessed this much drama so early in the legislature may be a sign that this Parliament is already on borrowed time. Unless the Liberals strike a deal with… anybody, Canadians could be heading back to the polls sometime in 2026.

We were not spoiled with many polls last week, as several firms had already released their latest numbers prior to the budget, but we did get interesting data to dig into from the Angus Reid Institute and Nanos Research.

With the dust now settling — and with this Parliament expected to survive at least through 2025 — we should have more data to analyze in the coming days.

Let us now focus on the data we did get last week, and update the federal projections.

The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) unveiled its latest federal numbers on Monday night, coincidentally as MPs were voting on the budget. Federally, ARI has the Liberals at 40% support, just ahead of the Conservatives at 38%.

Regionally, ARI shows the Bloc and Liberals tied at 36% in Quebec. In Ontario, the Liberals hold a seven-point lead over the Conservatives, 46% to 39%. In British Columbia, the race remains a statistical tie: 40% CPC to 38% LPC.

It is worth noting that, while the overall movement is marginal, this ARI survey is the first since the election to put the Liberals in front. In back-to-back September polls, ARI had the Conservatives leading by two and three points, respectively.

Beyond voting intentions, ARI’s headline finding was that Pierre Poilievre has reached the “lowest point of his leadership,” while approval of Mark Carney has climbed to a net +13 (from +8 in October).

To the question: “Do you have an overall favourable or unfavourable view of Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservative Party of Canada?” — 60% of respondents hold an unfavourable view of Poilievre, against 34% favourable.