338 Sunday Update: A Budget That Failed to Impress?

Early polling shows muted reaction across the country to Carney's first budget as Parliament braces for Monday’s confidence vote.

Happy Sunday morning, dear 338Canada readers,

The House was on break last week as the dust from the first Carney budget slowly settled. In the coming days, we will (or should) find out whether this budget will secure the support of a majority of MPs. The math remains uncertain.

The Liberals won 169 seats in the April general election—three short of a majority. With Acadie–Annapolis MP Chris d’Entremont (elected under the Conservative banner) joining the Liberals, the total rises to 170—still two seats shy of the threshold. If every opposition MP votes against the budget, it would be defeated 169–173 (since the Speaker votes only in the case of a tie).

The Liberals therefore need two more votes… or four opposition MPs to abstain, which would produce a 169–169 tie. In that case, convention dictates that the Speaker (Lac-Saint-Louis MP Francis Scarpaleggia) would break the tie in favour of the government.

Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet has clearly indicated that all 22 BQ MPs will vote against the budget. All signs point to Green Party leader Elizabeth May (and lone Green MP) joining them. And so we wait to see how the seven NDP MPs and 143 Conservative MPs will vote on Monday.

That’s the simple math to keep in mind this week. Should the budget vote fail, Canadians would be back at the polls sometime in January.

In this context, what did last week’s polls tell us about the political and electoral mood of Canadians as we inch closer to winter? Plenty, actually.

Welcome to this week’s 338 Sunday Update.

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