🍁 Happy Monday, dear 338Canada readers,
Last week’s crash of the main 338Canada and Qc125 sites forced me to spend much of the weekend coding and reloading the sites, and my brain was mush by the time it came to write the usual Sunday update. Apologies for the delay, dear readers.
Also of note: Three federal by-elections will conclude tonight in North Vancouver—Capilano, Beaches—East York, and Chicoutimi—Le Fjord.
While nothing in the data suggests the Liberals should be in trouble in North Vancouver—Capilano or Beaches—East York, Chicoutimi—Le Fjord is projected to be a battle between the Liberals and the Bloc Québécois.
Tonight’s results in Chicoutimi could therefore serve as an important barometer of where the main federal parties stand in francophone Quebec.
My podcast partner Éric Grenier and I will livestream the results tonight on YouTube, starting at 9pm, Eastern time. Join us!
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In recent weeks, the polls have shown very favourable numbers for the Carney Liberals.
The federal projections were updated yesterday.
The 338Canada approval tracker also saw an uptick for the government in recent days. The latest update has average approval at 56%, against 33% disapproval — a net rating of +22 when considering the decimals.
The Liberals have climbed to an average of 222 seats, against 84 for the Conservatives.
There are no major regional changes to report, but the Liberals have now hit the 100-seat mark on average in Ontario alone — a feat not reached since the 338Canada tracker was launched in 2017.
More to come this week.
Thanks, as always, to all subscribers of this newsletter who make 338Canada possible.🍁❤️