338 Quebec Update: The PQ's Majority Path Narrows
The latest Léger and Pallas polls leave the PQ in first place, but a recovering CAQ is making a majority government less certain. Buckle up for this fall.
Good morning, dear readers,
Just a quick note to highlight an update to the Quebec projection, prompted by a pair of polls from Léger and Pallas Data released earlier this week.
The Quebec landscape is not getting any simpler. For those who thought the next provincial election would boil down to a straightforward faceoff between the Parti Québécois and the Quebec Liberals, think again.
The CAQ has climbed back from the abyss.
The Parti Québécois remains the clear favourite according to the latest numbers, but its path to a majority—which looked like the most likely outcome just a few months ago—has become considerably more complicated.
Take a look at the PQ and CAQ bell curves below. Both have widened significantly, reflecting a growing range of plausible outcomes. The recent improvement in CAQ support among francophone voters has come at the expense of both the PQ and the Liberals.
Should the CAQ gain a few more points among francophones, the PQ’s chances of securing a majority government would decline sharply.
One note: this is the last Quebec update using the current 125-seat electoral map. Over the coming days, Qc125 will migrate to the new 127-seat map that will be used in the October 5 election.
The complete projection is available on 338Canada Quebec here.
More to come soon.🍁❤️
📊Enjoy independent, ad-free and data-driven analysis?
🍁Join thousands of readers supporting 338Canada.