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338 Quebec Update: CAQ on the Brink

Three new polls send the CAQ tumbling in the projection, while the Parti Québécois narrowly crosses the majority threshold. Buckle up for the final week.

Philippe J. Fournier's avatar
Philippe J. Fournier
Sep 28, 2026
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🍁Happy Monday morning, dear 338Canada readers,

Three Quebec polls landed within roughly 12 hours of each other — from Pallas Data, Léger and Synopsis — and while their numbers differ somewhat, they tell essentially the same story.

The Parti Québécois remains ahead with around 30 per cent support, the Conservatives continue to gain ground, and the CAQ is stumbling badly into the final week of the campaign.

With one week to go, the PQ is well positioned to win the most seats on October 5.

But will it be a minority or a majority?

And will the CAQ survive this election? Because a complete wipeout — zero seats — is now well within the range of possibilities.

Let’s look at the latest Quebec numbers.

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