338 Quebec Update: Buoyed by Montreal Suburbs, PQ Remains Ahead

Wiped out of the "450" in the 2022 Quebec election, the Parti Québécois now leads its rivals in the seat-rich Montreal suburbs.

A new Quebec poll from Toronto-based Pallas Data was released last week.

According to Pallas, the Parti Québécois maintained its province-wide lead with 31% of support (-1 vs. January) among decided voters, an 8-point lead over the governing CAQ, which sits 23% (+2). Québec solidaire and the Quebec Liberals remain at 17% and 15% respectively (unchanged since January), while Éric Duhaime’s Conservative Party receives 13% (+1).

---

---

Note that all these variations are within the poll's margin of error (±3%, 19 times out of 20). The survey was fielded on February 24, 2024, and gathered the opinions of 1,122 Quebec respondents (random sample). You can read the Pallas report here.

Pallas' regional breakdown give the Parti Québécois a 14-point lead in Greater Montreal. In Quebec City, Pallas sees a three-way statistical tie between the CAQ, the PCQ and the PQ (note, however, that the sample size in the Quebec City region is only 132 respondents, so the uncertainty is high).

---

---

In the regions of Quebec, the PQ (31%) and CAQ (29%) fight for the lead, while QS (16%), the PCQ (14%) and the Liberals (9%) battle it out for (a distant) third place.

Let's add this poll to the 338Canada Quebec projection model.

Here's the March 4, 2024, 338Canada update for the province of Quebec.