338 Provincial Updates: Incumbents Lead in B.C., Ontario, and Nova Scotia

Updated projections show all three incumbent governments holding majority-level advantages, despite modest regional uncertainties.

Good morning, dear 338Canada readers,

Using recent provincial polling, we at 338 HQ ran projection updates in three provinces: British Columbia, Ontario, and Nova Scotia.

The numbers suggest that all three incumbent governments are in fairly comfortable positions—albeit to varying degrees. Let’s go from West to East.

British Columbia: Eby’s NDP leads, Conservatives competitive, Greens inch upward

We have seen moderate disagreement in British Columbia polling in recent months (emphasis on moderate), but consecutive B.C. polls from Léger and Pallas Data—both firms that accurately measured party support in the 2024 election—show the BC NDP sitting in the low 40s, with the Conservatives (amid a very crowded leadership race) drawing support in the high 30s.

The latest Pallas Data poll, released yesterday, put the B.C. Greens at 13% province-wide, the party’s best result since the election. Could new Green leader Emily Lowan bring the party back into contention in more than a handful of ridings by the next election? We shall see.

The updated 338 B.C. projection places the NDP in majority territory with an average of 57 seats (47 seats are needed for a majority). The Conservatives sit at 34 seats on average.

Notice that the parties’ confidence intervals are unusually wide, the result of several closely projected races. A few additional points of support for the Conservatives in Metro Vancouver and the Lower Mainland could flip this projection quite dramatically.

All the British Columbia projection numbers can be found here. Find your provincial district here.

Ontario: Ford’s PCs comfortably ahead

Are there cracks in the foundation of the Ontario PCs? The numbers suggest that while the Ontario Liberals have moderately recovered from mediocrity to almost competitiveness—three consecutive Ontario polls have measured OLP support at 30% or above province-wide—the PCs are in no way, shape, or form in danger of losing their grip on the race at Queen’s Park.

Ontario polls over the past month have converged toward similar values for the main parties. The PCs find themselves in the low-to-mid 40s (close to their 2025 election result), the leaderless Ontario Liberals hover near the 30% mark, while Marit Stiles’s NDP continues to struggle below 20%.

The updated 338 Ontario projection has the main parties sitting essentially at their 2025 levels. The PCs remain comfortably in majority territory with an average of 81 seats. The ONDP holds on to most of its incumbents with 27 seats, while the Ontario Liberals—despite polling close to 30%—average just 13 seats.

All the Ontario projection numbers can be found here. Find your provincial district here.

Nova Scotia: Houston remains in the driver’s seat

Abacus Data released its latest provincial numbers out of its Halifax bureau yesterday. While we should be cautious about drawing firm conclusions from a modest sample of 601 respondents, the results nevertheless suggest that Premier Tim Houston remains in a comfortable position relative to his rivals.

According to Abacus, the Nova Scotia PCs remain well ahead in the horse race with 48% support. Claudia Chender’s NDP sits in second place at 25%, while the Nova Scotia Liberals—whose leadership race will conclude next November—trail in third with just 18%.

Moreover, Nova Scotians appear relatively satisfied with the Houston government at the moment. While only 8% of voters strongly approve of the provincial government, another 36% moderately approve, for a combined approval rating of 44%—a respectable score that many other premiers would envy.

Read the whole Nova Scotia report from Abacus Data here.

Adding these numbers to the pile, the updated 338 Nova Scotia projection produces the following range: the PCs lead with an average of 41 seats, with a confidence interval ranging from 36 to 45 seats—all within majority territory.

The NDP averages 11 seats (with a range of 8 to 15), while the Liberals hold on to the pair of ridings they currently have.

See the complete Nova Scotia projection here. Find your provincial riding here.

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