338 Ontario Update: PC Dominance Continues

Opposition parties at Queen's Park still unable to put a dent in PC support.

The paradox of Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives: Unpopular leader, poor government approval, and alone on top in voting intentions.

A new Ontario provincial poll was released last weekend in the pages of the Toronto Star. The survey from Abacus Data sees Doug Ford’s PC at its highest level of support since the 2022 general election, suggesting events from the spring and summer (including, but not limited to the LCBO strike) have not hurt PC support one iota.

Read the Star’s Robert Benzie analysis of the poll here.

Abacus measures the Ontario PC at 44% of voting intention across the province, 18 points ahead of the Ontario Liberals (26%).

The Ontario NDP, the Official Opposition at Queen’s Park, sits in third place with 19%. The Green Party of Ontario takes fourth place with 7%.

The poll’s demographic and regional breakdown are devastating for the opposition parties, as Ford’s PC leads in every region, among both men and women, and across all age groups.

In Toronto, the PC holds a 14-point lead over the OLP (45% to 31%). In the GTHA, the PC is on top with 39%, against 28% for the Liberals and 22% for the ONDP. In southwestern Ontario and Eastern Ontario, the PCs hold commanding leads over its rivals.

Among male voters, the PC leads the Liberals by a crushing 23-point margin (48% to 25%). Among women, the PC’s advantage is 13 points over the Liberals (39% to 26%).

Details of this poll, including analysis from Abacus Data’s CEO

David Coletto

can be found on Abacus Data’s website here.

We at 338 HQ took some vacation in July and had not updated the Ontario projection since June. Let’s now add this latest poll to the 338Canada Ontario model.

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