338 Ontario Update: Ford's PCs Losing Ground

Ontario polls fielded this spring measured a significant drop for Ford's PCs, and gains for the leaderless Liberals.

The Ontario government’s now-cancelled purchase of a private Bombardier aircraft may not rank among the biggest controversies of Doug Ford’s tenure. But it could prove to be a catalyst—one that coincides with what now looks like a clear softening in public opinion for the Ontario PCs.

Earlier this month, both Abacus Data and Pallas Data measured a significant tightening in voting intentions between the PCs and the (still leaderless) Ontario Liberals. Abacus saw the PC lead shrink from eight points to just one, while Pallas measured a drop from nine points to five.

Then, on Wednesday morning, Liaison Strategies released new numbers showing the Ontario Liberals edging ahead: 38% OLP, 36% PC.

One has to go back to early 2022 to find a poll with the PCs trailing their rivals at Queen’s Park. (See complete list of Ontario polls here.)

After nearly eight years in power, the Ford government may finally be taking a significant hit in public opinion. The overall vote split still slightly favours the PCs in the aggregate, but the trend is unmistakable—and it remains unclear where, or when, a new equilibrium might be reached.

Regionally, the movement is notable. Fielded April 21–22, the latest Pallas poll showed the Liberals leading in Toronto (the 416) and in eastern Ontario, while the PCs continue to hold advantages in the GTA, Central, and Southwestern Ontario.

Abacus, meanwhile, reported similar horserace numbers—but perhaps the more telling shift is underneath: rising dissatisfaction with the government, with disapproval up four points since earlier this spring.

The longer-term trajectory is even more concerning for the PCs. As recently as last fall, the Ford government still posted net positive approval in Abacus’ tracker.

Liaison’s latest release reinforces the pattern, with the PCs losing ground in both Toronto and Central Ontario, and the Liberals opening a six-point lead in the crucial GTA.

In the aggregate, the Ontario PCs remain slightly ahead—but their trend line is now clearly pointing downward.

That shift introduces a great deal of uncertainty into the projection, widening confidence intervals across the board. Feeding the latest data into the 338Canada Ontario model now places the PCs in minority territory, albeit with unusually large uncertainty—something that should stabilize once (or if) the current slide levels off.

The Ontario NDP, while still polling in a distant third place, would likely retain most of its current seat count if an election were held today—making a minority legislature an increasingly plausible outcome if these numbers were to hold.

With real movement in the polls—something Ontario has not seen in quite some time—we should expect additional data points in the days ahead.

See the updated Ontario projection here.

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