338 British Columbia Update: NDP Leads, Uncertainty Reigns on the Right

It's a feature, not a bug: Diverging poll data leads to uncertain projections.

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Are B.C. Premier David Eby and the B.C. New Democrats heading towards a landslide victory next fall? Or is the re-alignment on the right of the B.C. political spectrum progressing faster than anticipated?

As we stand six months from the provincial campaign, two B.C. polls were released earlier this month showing diverging data. While the NDP was leading in both polls, the numbers on the opposition parties could hardly have been more divergent. (See complete list of B.C. polls here.)

On one hand, the Angus Reid Institute shows a deadlock for second place, with the B.C. Liberals United and the B.C. Conservatives at 22% apiece. Such a perfect split would undoubtedly benefit the New Democrats in a hypothetical ballot, and would most likely leave both BCU and CPBC with a handful of seats each. (Read Angus Reid’s report here.)

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On the other, the latest B.C. poll from Mainstreet Research measures a much tighter race at the top, with the NDP (40%) holding a six-point lead over the Conservatives (34%). The B.C. United, with only 15% of support, would suffer dramatic losses in such a scenario — a complete BCU wipe-out would not be an implausible scenario. Read Mainstreet report here.

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So what are we to do with such numbers? We calculate a weighted average which will, naturally, contain an abnormal level of uncertainty. Work with the data you have, not the data you wish you had.

Let’s now update the 338Canada British Columbia projection.