338 British Columbia Update: Conservatives Projected to Win a Majority

David Eby's gamble may have cut the NDP's time in power short.

🍁Good evening dear readers,

The numbers and charts below may not be the very final 338Canada B.C. projections, as I reserve the right to make a few last-minute adjustments tomorrow morning — before polls open — should any additional data come in overnight.

But the polling data has been remarkably consistent, and the picture is clear: The Conservative Party of B.C. is projected to win a majority government in Saturday’s British Columbia election.

Let’s look at the numbers, which you can find on the main 338Canada British Columbia pages.

The Conservatives are projected to win an average of 57 seats, with a potential ceiling in the high 60s should their support be underestimated by the polls.

The NDP, meanwhile, is projected to win an average of 33 seats. It would take a major polling error for David Eby’s New Democrats to come close to retaining power.

The Greens present an interesting case. When I posted the latest numbers yesterday, even I hadn’t noticed that a third Green seat was potentially in play.

The Greens’ projected average is actually closer to 2.5 seats, with victories projected in Saanich North and the Islands and West Vancouver–Sea to Sky, while Victoria–Beacon Hill remains a Green–NDP toss-up.

But there are no half-seats in the legislature, so we’ll see how that one plays out.

We’ll have our usual post-election breakdown and analysis in the coming days.

For now, however, I hope readers will forgive me for calling it a night and getting some much-needed rest.

It’s been quite a month.

Thank you, dear subscribers, for supporting 338Canada. 🍁❤️