338 Alberta Update: Danielle Smith's UCP Maintains Strong Lead Halfway Through Mandate

A new Janet Brown poll shows the UCP comfortably ahead of the ANDP—but separatist support within its base could become a growing challenge.

New polling from local firm Janet Brown Opinion Research (JBOR), released last week by CBC Calgary, offers fresh insight into Alberta’s political landscape—both in terms of party support and the simmering appeal of the separatist movement, which has been making waves since Mark Carney’s federal Liberal victory.

Premier Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party (UCP) maintains a comfortable lead over its New Democratic rivals. But storm clouds may be gathering on the UCP’s horizon: according to JBOR, nearly all Albertans who support separation from Canada fall within the UCP base. How Smith manages this growing sentiment within her party could help define the second half of her mandate, with the next provincial election scheduled for fall 2027.

Still, based on this new data, the updated 338Canada Alberta projection shows the UCP would cruise to a massive majority if an election were held this spring.

Let’s dive into the newest numbers.