Also on the docket: Americans still broadly trust Canada is negotiating in good faith in the current trade dispute between the two countries.

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F or years, Canadians have operated on two competing assumptions: that Americans like them and that Americans barely think of them at all. New polling from Leger suggests both instincts are correct, even amid continued trade tensions between Ottawa and Washington.

In a survey of 1,004 American voters conducted April 17–20, Canada remains one of the few nations Americans still view with overwhelming warmth. Asked how they would describe Canada in the context of the economic and trade relationship, a majority characterize the country in broadly positive terms.

Read full details here.

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🍁Happy Sunday morning, dear 338Canada readers,

Fresh off a by-election sweep and a newly formed (if thin) majority in the House of Commons, the federal Liberals have increased their lead over the Conservatives in recent days—not because Liberal support has surged, but because the Conservatives have slipped further back in the aggregate.

In our latest episode of The Numbers (recorded Thursday morning), Eric and I discussed whether having this much time before the next scheduled election (October 2029 at the latest) is a blessing or a curse for the Conservatives and their leader, Pierre Poilievre. See below. (Oh, and there’s also a quiz.)

Other notable news this week: Alexandre Boulerice, MP for Rosemont—La-Petite-Patrie, is expected to announce his resignation from the House of Commons to run in the next Quebec provincial election for Québec solidaire. This would shrink the NDP caucus to five MPs, with no representation east of Winnipeg.

[Note: As Boulerice’s resignation is not yet official (expected next week), it has not been factored into the current projection.]

Let’s recap the polls and update the federal projection.

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Abacus Data: Liberals hold 9-point lead

The latest federal poll from Abacus Data was released this morning. While Abacus numbers had recently been somewhat friendlier to the Conservatives, this newest survey is anything but. Nationally, the Liberals hold a nine-point advantage, including a 12-point lead in Ontario and a 14-point edge in British Columbia. In Quebec, Abacus places the Liberals 13 points ahead of the Bloc.

Since the start of the year, the trend is clear: in January, Liberals and Conservatives were tied at 40% apiece. Since March, however, the Liberals have maintained a steady lead ranging between 6 and 10 points.

Abacus’ government approval tracker continues to show strong numbers for the Mark Carney government: 54% approve, compared to 29% who disapprove—a net +25.

Read Abacus’ latest report here.

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Nanos Research: LPC 46%, CPC 32%

The Nanos Research tracker has barely moved over the past month. Last week’s update had the Liberals holding a commanding 14-point lead, 46% to 32%.

Compared to Nanos’ previous four-week wave (ending March 20), the numbers are essentially unchanged. The prior wave (ending February 20) had the Liberals ahead by seven points—suggesting the current gap has both widened and stabilized.

The preferred prime minister tracker shows modest signs of recovery for Poilievre, up four points in the past month. But that’s the extent of the good news for the Conservatives. While Carney has shed three points over the same period, he still leads by a wide margin: 52% to 26%.

Read Nanos’ latest public report here.

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Liaison Strategies: Liberals up a dozen

The weekly tracker from Liaison Strategies points to a similar trend. The latest update places the Liberals at 45% nationally, compared to 33% for the Conservatives.

Liaison’s approval tracker is even more bullish on the government, measuring 62% approval against 29% disapproval—a net +33.

Read the latest Liaison release here.

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Léger: LPC leading by 18 in Quebec

Last week’s Quebec poll from Léger included federal numbers and showed a comfortable Liberal lead in the province: 47% for the LPC, 29% for the Bloc, and 17% for the Conservatives.

That same survey showed a narrow lead provincially for the Parti québécois. The 338 Quebec projection has been updated here.

Read Léger’s full Quebec report here.

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Let’s now get to the federal projection update.

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Despite the emergence of new rivals and certain reactions that seem to rub part of the electorate the wrong way, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon still has every chance of becoming Quebec’s premier.

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The past few weeks have set the stage for the coming months to be full of twists and turns on the Quebec political scene. A new premier, a determined sovereigntist option, a government in survival mode, and five parties that can hope to win seats in the National Assembly this fall: these are all factors that could throw the seat projections for the upcoming election—still scheduled for October 6—into chaos.

Recent polls clearly reflect this extraordinary turmoil. Usually, outside of election campaigns, shifts in public opinion are slow and gradual. However, since winter, the numbers have shifted significantly.

For example, the gap between Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s Parti Québécois (PQ) and the Quebec Liberal Party (QLP) since the start of the year has fluctuated between a 15-point lead and a 3-point deficit, ending this week with the PQ regaining a lead—albeit by just 3 points, which falls within the margin of error.

In December, the PQ held a 15-point lead in the Léger poll, while the saga surrounding Pablo Rodriguez’s potential departure was still having an impact. That lead shrank to six points by the end of January, then to a PQ-PLQ tie in March. In April, Pallas Data even gave the Liberals under new leader Charles Milliard a slight edge.

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With a majority government now in place, Mark Carney isn’t likely to head back to the polls anytime soon. That gives Pierre Poilievre time to catch his breath — and catch up to the Liberals.

But is the extra time he now has ahead of him as Conservative leader a positive or a negative?

This week on The Numbers, Eric and Philippe discuss some new poll numbers that suggest Conservative voters might be souring a little on the party’s leader.

We also take a look at the national polling scene and break down some new numbers out of Quebec.

We then close with a Quiz.

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Watch the episode on YouTube:

… or listen to the episode on your favourite platform:

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Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. Also: Ad-free episodes!

You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.

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New polling from the Angus Reid Institute offers a fresh look at the state of federal politics, including how Canadians view recent floor crossings and Pierre Poilievre’s leadership.

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At the leadership level, the gap between the two main figures remains striking. Among all Canadians, Mark Carney’s favourable rating stands at 59%, compared to just 33% for Poilievre.

Unfavourables tell a similar story: 34% for Carney versus 60% for the Conservative leader. This leaves the Prime Minister with a net approval of +25, while Poilievre sits deep in negative territory at -27.

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🍁Good morning, dear 338Canada readers,

The federal Liberals swept last Monday’s by-elections to climb to 174 seats in the House of Commons — two seats clear of the threshold for a majority.

My podcast partner Eric Grenier and I streamed the results on Monday night, and while the two Toronto ridings were decided early in the count, it was only past midnight, and with over 98% of ballot boxes counted, that we were able to declare the Liberals victorious in Terrebonne, in suburban Montreal.

While they were not projected as competitive in any of the three contested ridings, the Conservatives saw their share of the vote fall by double digits in all three — this is especially notable since Conservative voters historically tend to show up in by-elections, even in unfavourable ridings for the CPC.

The importance of by-elections is sometimes overblown in political analysis, so we must be careful not to draw hasty conclusions from what were three local events. However, had the Conservatives grown their share of the vote by, say, 10 points — even in a losing effort — we would assuredly point it out.

Imagine a near-tie between the Liberals and Bloc in Terrebonne, but with a vote share of 28% for the Conservatives (compared to 18% in the 2025 election). Our conclusions would be that Poilievre’s CPC has gained strength in suburban Montreal. (Instead, the CPC vote collapsed to a measly 3% in Terrebonne.)

Ditto in the two Toronto ridings. In Scarborough Southwest, the Conservatives took almost 31% of the vote in 2025. On Monday, the CPC candidate received just under 19% — a drop of 12 points. Had the Conservative vote grown by 12 points instead, from 31% to 43%, the Liberals would still have won, but our analysis of the current landscape would be wildly different — and rightly so.

So let’s not overblow the importance of these by-elections, but let’s not completely dismiss them either. They measured a snapshot of local voters’ preferences and enthusiasm — neither of which were favourable to the Conservatives, no more, no less. More broadly, these results do not suggest a party building momentum since Poilievre’s leadership review in January — quite the opposite.

Let’s now recap the past week in the polls and update the 338Canada federal projections. Welcome to the 338 Sunday Update.

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New polling from Leger offers a snapshot of how Canadians view Israel amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East. While perceptions have grown more negative in recent years, concern about antisemitism at home remains significant.

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Overall, the survey finds that just 22% of Canadians hold a favourable view of Israel, down eleven points from a comparable Leger survey in 2023. Meanwhile, 61% now view the country unfavourably.

For context, Canadians’ views of other countries in the survey are also largely negative. The United States has an identical favourability rating of 22%, with 72% viewing it unfavourably. China, meanwhile, is seen favourably by 33% of Canadians and unfavourably by 52%—a notable contrast that speaks to differing perceptions of global actors.

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With the majority now secured, Mark Carney’s Liberals can look ahead to another 3.5 years in office without going back to the polls. That is, of course, if they don’t want to go back to the polls before then.

This week on The Numbers, Eric and Philippe discuss the current polling landscape and the fallout from Monday’s by-elections and what they could mean for the longevity of this Parliament.

We also chat about our experience at the Liberal convention in Montreal and how it contrasted with the NDP convention in Winnipeg (as well as the CAQ convention in Drummondville).

We then break down new provincial polling numbers from Quebec, Alberta and British Columbia and end with another edition of The Quiz.

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Watch the episode on YouTube:

… or listen to the episode on your favourite platform:

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• Spotify

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Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. Also: Ad-free episodes!

You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.

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After a turbulent winter and early spring in Quebec politics — a period during which two parties in the National Assembly chose new leaders — we now know the main figures who will face off in the next Quebec election, scheduled for this fall.

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On Sunday, members of the Coalition Avenir Québec chose Christine Fréchette to replace François Legault. Will the new premier be able to revive a party that has been struggling in the polls for nearly three years? At the very least, the hole the CAQ finds itself in is deep — and the climb out will be steep.

A new poll from Pallas Data, conducted following Ms. Fréchette’s leadership victory, gives us a sense of the scale of the challenge ahead.

At the province-wide level, Pallas now places Charles Milliard’s Quebec Liberal Party in first place with 32% support among decided and leaning voters. That represents a five-point gain since Pallas’s previous Quebec poll in February.

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🍁Good morning, dear readers,

Thank you to the many thousands who joined Eric and me for last night’s by-election livestream.

It turned into a Liberal sweep in University—Rosedale, Scarborough Southwest, and Terrebonne, bringing the Liberals to 174 seats—now two above the 172-seat majority threshold.

After the stream, Eric and I recorded a short post-election debrief. You can watch it below on YouTube, or listen to the audio version wherever you get your podcasts.

More analysis to come soon.

Thank you for supporting 338Canada.🍁❤️

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Good evening, dear 338Canada readers,

Eric and I will be livestreaming the three federal by-elections tonight, starting at 8:30pm ET.

Join us here for results, analysis, and some fun.

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It’s already political legend. In 2025, Justin Trudeau stepped down as prime minister just as Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives cruised toward a massive majority government. Within weeks of Mark Carney taking the helm of the Liberals, the political landscape was transformed. By April, the Liberals had secured another mandate—a turnaround with virtually no precedent in Canada in terms of scale and timing, and one that few observers would have predicted at the start of the year. Yours truly included.

And yet, beneath that dramatic reversal, one crucial segment of the electorate didn’t budge for the Conservatives. Among voters aged eighteen to thirty-four—“young voters” for the purposes of this analysis—party support held firm after Trudeau’s exit and Carney’s arrival. It is the only major demographic group where the Conservatives truly weathered the massive 2025 shift in public opinion.

Read the full column with charts here.

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Happy Sunday morning, dear 338Canada readers,

The federal Liberals threw themselves a party last week in Montréal.

With high approval numbers, favourable voting intentions, and yet another CPC MP crossing the floor, Liberals gathered at the Palais des congrès in buoyant spirits. But the focus now shifts quickly to Monday’s by-elections in Terrebonne, University—Rosedale, and Scarborough Southwest.

A two-out-of-three result — a highly likely outcome — would give Mark Carney’s Liberals 173 seats in the House of Commons, enough to govern without relying on the Speaker’s tie-breaking vote. A clean sweep would add a small cushion, and perhaps more importantly, reinforce the sense of momentum.

Quick plug: my podcast partner Eric Grenier and I will livestream and analyze the results on Monday night. Bookmark this link an join us!

Let’s recap the polls of the past week and update the 338Canada federal projections.

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Abacus Data: Liberals lead by 6

The latest Abacus Data poll, released this morning, gives the Liberals 44% nationally, compared to 38% for the Conservatives. Abacus remains the only major firm currently placing the CPC in the high 30s — but even here, the regional picture is far from encouraging for the Conservatives.

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It was rumoured to be in the offing, but on Wednesday news came of the surprising floor-crossing of Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong MP Marilyn Gladu from the Conservatives to the Liberals, putting Mark Carney’s government even closer to a majority. We started the podcast unaware of the news, but we eventually offer some hot takes on the crossing minutes after it was announced.

Still, even with Gladu the Liberals need some wins to make their majority official on Monday night in the three federal by-elections being held in the two Toronto ridings of University—Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest and the Quebec riding of Terrebonne.

Rarely are by-elections so impactful. But beyond the question of whether or not the Liberals will win them, the three contests will be a gauge of where the Conservatives, NDP and Bloc stand in public opinion. Can Pierre Poilievre shake off his party’s poor polling numbers? Can Yves-François Blanchet take back Terrebonne, which was once a stronghold? And can Avi Lewis show any signs of life for his NDP?

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Watch the episode on YouTube:

… or listen to the episode on your favourite platform:

• Apple Podcasts

• Spotify

• Acast

• Podbean

Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. Also: Ad-free episodes!

You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.

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New polling from Research Co. offers an updated look at how Canadians view climate change—and whether they are willing to pay to address it.

The survey finds that 63% of Canadians believe climate change is real and primarily caused by human activity. Another 21% say the climate is changing, but attribute it to natural causes. Only 9% say climate change is merely a theory that has yet to be proven.

These views are broadly consistent across demographic groups, but partisan differences are more pronounced. Among 2025 voters, 81% of Liberal supporters say climate change is primarily human-caused, compared to 68% of New Democrats (small sample, interpret with caution) and 44% of Conservatives.

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Conservative voters are also the most likely to attribute climate change to natural causes (34%) or to say it remains unproven (16%).

With nearly two-thirds of Canadians accepting human-driven climate change, it follows that 66% describe it as a major global crisis, while another 20% consider it a minor one. Just 9% say it is not a crisis at all—roughly the same share who reject its scientific basis.

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Happy Easter / Passover Sunday, dear 338Canada readers,

Last week featured the always much-awaited Léger federal poll, the usual Nanos Research and Liaison trackers, as well as eyebrow-raising surveys from Léger in Québec and from the Angus Reid Institute in British Columbia.

🍁Welcome to the 338 Sunday Update.

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Let us begin with federal numbers.

We are seeing a rather healthy spread in the national horse race. Since mid-March, Mark Carney’s Liberals have polled between 44% and 48% nationally, while Conservative support has ranged from 30% to 37%.

As for the NDP, there remains some disagreement on where the party stands—but this has been the case since last summer, so nothing new. Nanos Research continues to measure NDP support in double digits, whereas most other active firms do not.

This gap remains modest, but it has been consistent for months (see chart below).

Read the latest Nanos update here.

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We covered the Léger / Postmedia poll earlier last week here. It featured a 14-point national lead for the Liberals, including a massive 20-point advantage in Ontario, and a 15-point lead in Quebec.

Léger’s tracker showed a modest erosion in government approval, but the numbers remain comfortably in positive territory. Nationally, 58% of respondents approve of the performance of Mark Carney’s federal government (–3 since early March), against 33% disapproval (+2)—a net +25, down from +30 last month.

Additionally, Léger finds net-positive approval in every polling region.

Read the full Léger report here.

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The Liaison Strategies tracker tells a similar story: its latest update puts the Liberals at 45% nationwide, against 33% for the Conservatives.

Liaison’s approval tracker has shown remarkable stability since the new year. Last week’s update measured 63% approval, against 32% disapproval—a net +31.

Read Liaison’s update here.

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Let us now update the 338Canada federal projections.

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Three federal by-elections that could give Mark Carney a majority government are now less than two weeks away. Pierre Poilievre is trying out some new approaches against the Liberal government as he tries to close the gap and the NDP now has a new permanent leader in Avi Lewis.

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This week on The Numbers, Eric and Philippe discuss the latest federal polls and where things stand as this political spring starts to heat up. Plus, we take a peak at some leaked data about how NDP members ranked their ballot on the weekend.

We also chat about a new poll out of Quebec, where the provincial election slated in October is looking tougher and tougher to predict.

Watch the new episode on YouTube:

… or listen to the episode on your favourite platform:

• Apple Podcasts

• Spotify

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Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. Also: Ad-free episodes!

You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.

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Good morning, dear 338Canada readers,

The always much-anticipated Léger federal poll was released this morning, and it suggests the Liberals are still riding high on their winter surge. If an election had been held this week, the Liberals would be headed toward a massive majority in the House of Commons, according to these latest figures.

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Nationally, the Liberals stand at 48% support (−1 since Léger’s previous poll in early March). The Conservatives trail by 14 points at 34% (also −1).

Regionally, the Liberals maintain a commanding 20-point lead over the Conservatives in Ontario and a 15-point advantage over the Bloc Québécois in Quebec. In British Columbia, however, Léger detects a notable tightening: from a double-digit Liberal lead in early March to a 3-point Conservative edge in late March.

Naturally, the BC subsample is smaller and subject to greater volatility, but the shift is nonetheless noteworthy.

Below are all federal polls from Léger since last fall. The latest numbers are broadly consistent with the upward Liberal trend that began in January.

Satisfaction with the federal government remains high, though it has eased slightly: net satisfaction now stands at +23, down from +26 in Léger’s previous release. In this latest survey, 57% of respondents said they are satisfied with the federal government, compared to 34% who are dissatisfied.

Regionally, variations in government satisfaction are relatively modest. Net satisfaction remains positive in every region, including +25 in Ontario, +27 in Quebec, +19 in British Columbia, and +16 in Alberta.

All results from this Léger poll are available here. You can also read Léger’s full report here.

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The Parti Québécois’ wide lead in voting intentions is no more. For the first time since November 2023, the PQ is no longer alone at the top in a Quebec poll.

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Léger’s latest Quebec survey, conducted from March 20 to 22, 2026, places the PQ and the Quebec Liberals at 33% apiece among decided voters.

Compared to Léger’s previous poll (released in early March), this represents a gain of three points for the Liberals and of two point for the PQ. The governing CAQ, meanwhile, has fallen to a dismal 9% — a four-point decline over the course of March and the worst polling result for the party since its creation in 2011.

Among francophone voters, the PLQ is gaining ground and benefiting from the CAQ’s decline. Charles Milliard’s Liberals now stands at 23% among francophones, up four points, but still well behind the PQ, which leads with 41%.

The regional breakdown is consistent with recent polls and highlights deep divides between the Montreal metropolitan area and the rest of the province. In Greater Montreal (island and suburbs), the Liberals lead by 17 points over the PQ, 44% to 27%. In the Quebec City region, results have not moved beyond the margin of error, and the race remains tight between the PQ and the Conservatives.

In the rest of Quebec, the PQ sits at 41% support, 19 points ahead of the Liberals.

While caution is warranted when interpreting results by age group — especially among younger voters — some notable numbers nonetheless emerge. Among voters aged 18 to 34, Léger finds a tight three-way race between the Liberals, the PQ, and Québec solidaire, with the Liberals on top with 32%.

The PQ leads among voters aged 35 to 54 with 34% support, nine points ahead of the Conservatives and 11 points ahead of the Liberals. Among voters aged 55 and over, Léger measures a close race between the Liberals (40%) and the PQ (35%).

The Coalition Avenir Québec, with just two weeks remaining in its leadership race, is not competitive in any region or demographic group.

At only 9% support province-wide, the CAQ would effectively be wiped off the map if these numbers were to hold through an election.

A full update of the 338Canada Quebec projection will be published shortly.

The full results of this poll are available here.

Thank you to all readers and subscribers for supporting 338Canada.🍁❤️

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