🍁Happy Sunday morning, dear 338Canada readers,

A surprise announcement from the PMO changed this morning's plans. Prime Minister Mark Carney has called three federal by-elections for August 31, including one that could become the most closely watched race of the summer.

We'll begin there before turning to the latest chapter in the never-ending Canada–U.S. trade saga.

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All eyes on Chicoutimi

The Prime Minister's Office published a brief press release this morning announcing three federal by-elections will be held on August 31 in the ridings of North Vancouver—Capilano, Beaches—East York, and Chicoutimi—Le Fjord.

Barring a dramatic reversal of fortune over the next month—that is, a sharp decline in Liberal support—the Liberals should be in a comfortable position to retain North Vancouver—Capilano and Beaches—East York.

Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, however, will almost certainly be the one to watch.

In the 2025 federal election, Chicoutimi—Le Fjord produced one of the closest races in the country, with just three points separating first from third place. Conservative MP Richard Martel held the seat with 34% of the vote, while both the Bloc Québécois and Liberals finished close behind at 31% apiece.

Current data continue to point toward another razor-thin three-way contest between the Conservatives, Liberals and Bloc Québécois. While the Conservatives could be hurt by Martel's departure—he was appointed to the Senate earlier this month—voters in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord have shown little long-term loyalty to any single party in this century.

Although the riding boundaries have evolved over the years, voters here have elected Liberal, Conservative, Bloc and NDP MPs since the 2000 federal election.

On Friday, TVA Nouvelles published a Bloc-commissioned Pallas Data poll of the riding conducted July 18 (n=317). It showed a statistical three-way tie: Bloc 30%, Liberals 28%, Conservatives 26%, with 13% of respondents still undecided.

Here below is the latest 338Canada projection in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord:

Because Chicoutimi—Le Fjord is an overwhelmingly francophone riding, it could provide another useful test of Liberal support in francophone Quebec, only a few months after the LPC's by-election victory in Terrebonne.

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An otherwise relatively quiet political summer has been rocked again by U.S. President Donald Trump, as he is set to impose a new round of tariffs on Canada.

How might another tussle with the United States impact the polling numbers, which seemed to suggest the Liberals undergoing a modest softening in their support?

This week on The Numbers, Eric and Philippe discuss the potential impact of another tariff fight on Mark Carney’s poll numbers. We also break down the results of a provincial by-election in Manitoba that has more good news for Premier Wab Kinew, and chat about some new polls on the popularity of premiers David Eby and Danielle Smith.

We then answer some member questions from the mailbag, with the full segment available exclusively to Patreon members.

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You can watch the episode on YouTube:

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“Without us there’s no way they can survive,” said Trump from the Oval Office on Tuesday.

Donald Trump’s latest threats of new tariffs against Canada have once again injected uncertainty into Canada-U.S. relations. If history is any guide, however, the political consequences north of the border may not unfold the way the U.S. Administration hopes.

Since Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025, Canadians have consistently rallied behind their federal government whenever relations with Washington have deteriorated. That trend first became apparent during Justin Trudeau’s final weeks as prime minister—and it has continued under Mark Carney.

For nearly three years, Trudeau’s government experienced one of the longest and deepest declines of public approval in recent Canadian history. Net approval steadily deteriorated from slightly negative territory in 2022 to a net -45 in the aggregate by late 2024.

Then the trend abruptly reversed.

As Trump began threatening sweeping tariffs, questioning Canada’s sovereignty, and repeatedly referring to the country as a potential “51st state,” Canadians’ evaluation of their federal government changed dramatically.

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Today, the Carney government enjoys a healthy +21 net approval rating in the 338Canada government approval tracker, with 55% of Canadians approving of its performance and 34% disapproving (on average).

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🍁Happy Sunday morning, dear 338Canada readers,

As many voters across Canada may be taking their usual July hiatus from politics, federal numbers show notable stability across the board.

Mark Carney's Liberals still hold a significant advantage over their Conservative rivals and government approval remains at enviable levels, as national attention will soon turn to Quebec and Alberta, where voters face a provincial election and a referendum this fall.

Three new national polls were released last week, alongside several issue-based surveys. On Friday, I broke down the latest Angus Reid Institute poll on Canadians' views of two proposed pipeline projects. You can read it here.

Let us begin with the latest survey from Abacus Data, which was released this morning.

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Abacus: Liberals +6

Abacus Data's latest survey shows no major movement on the federal front, although it continues to depict a somewhat closer race than most other recent polls. The Liberals remain in first place at 43%, six points ahead of the Conservatives at 37%. The NDP sits in a distant third at 9%.

Regionally, Abacus sees more of the same across the board, with some tightening in Ontario where the Liberals hold a 7-point lead. Two weeks ago, Abacus had the Liberals leading by 12 points in the province. No dramatic movement just yet, but it may be worth watching whether this narrowing persists over the coming weeks.

Abacus also sees only minor movement in government approval: 52% approve (-2) and 32% disapprove (+1) — for a net +20 approval.

The chart below shows Abacus' government approval numbers since late winter. While 52% approval is the lower end of current ranges, it’s hard to look at this chart and really decipher a clear trend and not just noise.

One question worth watching over the coming months is whether the Liberals' embrace of new pipeline projects creates space for the NDP or Greens to recover support among environmentally minded voters.

So far, there is little-to-no evidence of that. Neither party has shown meaningful gains in voting intentions, and Abacus' tracking of leader impressions shows virtually no movement for NDP leader Avi Lewis.

Not only has Lewis not moved the needle for his party since March, his personal numbers have also remained completely flat. Naturally, this is not an assessment on Lewis’ leadership thus far, as that would be premature. But we continue to follow these numbers with interest, if the NDP begins winning back support from the Liberals, we would most likely also see upward movement for the leader.

Read details from Abacus here, including analysis from Abacus Data CEO .

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Nanos Research: Liberals lead by 12

The usual weekly tracker from Nanos Research has fluctuated back and forth in recent weeks — as weekly trackers do. Last week’s update, conducted between June 19 and July 10, measured Liberal support at 43%, against 31% for the Conservatives. Nanos has the NDP back in the mid-teens with 15%.

Nanos’ preferred PM tracker still has Mark Carney as the top choice of a majority of respondents with 52%, 29 points ahead of Pierre Poilievre. Avi Lewis (not shown on chart below) took 5%.

Read the public release from Nanos here.

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Liaison Strategies: A (slightly) closer race?

Finally, the two-week tracker from Liaison Strategies has also moved towards a tightening, although the movement is well within the poll’s margin of error, so prudence. Liaison puts the Liberals at 41% nationally, against 35% for the Conservatives.

Liaison’s regional breakdown shows nothing especially unusual compared to recent averages. The Liberals lead by 17 points over the Bloc in Quebec, and by 8 points over the Conservatives in Ontario. It is worth noting that Liaison has the NDP at 23% in British Columbia, down two points from last week, but still significantly higher than current averages from other pollsters.

Read Liaison’ latest release here.

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Taken together, these three polls reinforce the same picture we've been seeing for weeks. The margins differ from firm to firm, but all point to a clear Liberal lead, stable government approval, and no meaningful momentum for opposition parties.

Let’s get to this week’s 338Canada federal update.

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The political and economic conversation around energy infrastructure continues to evolve in Canada, and public opinion is shifting in favour of fossil fuels exploitation.

Fresh polling from the Angus Reid Institute (ARI) tested Canadians' support for two proposed pipeline projects linking Alberta to the Pacific Coast and to Ontario. The latter would be a 3,300-kilometre pipeline to Sarnia, ON, whose preliminary plans were unveiled last week by Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Ontario Premier Doug Ford.

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The survey finds strong public support for both proposals.

Overall, do you support or oppose this proposed new pipeline from Alberta to the B.C. coast?

Nationally, 61% of respondents said they support the project, while just 21% oppose it.

Support is widespread across the country. Three-quarters of respondents in Saskatchewan (75%) and nearly as many in Alberta (73%) back the proposal. Majorities also support it in British Columbia (62%), Ontario (63%), Atlantic Canada (69%), and Manitoba (58%). Opposition in each of these regions ranges from just 14% to 24%.

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We’ll admit it when we might have been wrong — and the results of Monday’s by-election in Prince Edward Island suggest we might have been a bit too skeptical of a Narrative Research poll that put the PEI Greens in the lead.

So, we start with some mea culpas, and a discussion of whether the Cornwall—Meadowbank could be the proverbial flap of the butterfly wings that has bigger repercussions further down the line.

In addition, on this week’s episode of The Numbers we breakdown the latest federal poll numbers, as well as a new survey on how Canadians feel about the construction of new pipelines.

We also try to make sense of yet another poll out of Nova Scotia that paints yet another different portrait of the province’s political landscape.

Then, we close with a Green-hued Quiz.

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The new episode is available on YouTube:

You may also listen to the episode on your favourite platform:

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Don’t you know who I am?

For many Canadians, the answer is “no” when it comes to some of our political leaders. A new national poll from Pollara suggests that very few Canadians can name the leader of the NDP (Avi Lewis) or any cabinet ministers, while Pierre Poilievre’s recognition hasn’t shifted much over the last three years.

(Plus, many people still struggle to spell his name correctly.)

This week on The Numbers, we discuss these recognition numbers as well as the latest polls on federal voting intentions nationwide and provincial voting intentions across Atlantic Canada, where the results leave us a little lost for words.

We also breakdown Conservative MP Richard Martel’s appointment to the Senate and what it means for the upcoming by-election in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord.

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The episode is available on YouTube:

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🎵 Summertime, and the pollin’ is easy
🎵 Libs are jumpin', and Carney is high
🎵 Oh, the trendline's steady, and the crosstabs are holdin'
🎵 So hush, dear data nerds, don't you cry.

🍁Happy Sunday morning, dear 338Canada readers,

As many Canadians disconnect from politics for the summer, the latest federal numbers suggest we have settled into a new plateau: the Liberals continue to lead in voting intentions, approval of the Carney government remains comfortably in positive territory, and the Prime Minister continues to post strong personal favourability ratings.

The latest poll from Abacus Data, released this morning, gives the Liberals an eight-point lead nationally over the Conservatives, 44% to 36%, while the NDP remains a distant third at 8%.

See all the toplines here and read the full Abacus report from here.

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The weekly trackers from Nanos Research and Liaison Strategies showed little movement. Nanos has the Liberals at 44% nationally, 14 points ahead of the Conservatives, while Liaison has a modestly closer race with the LPC at 42% and the CPC, 34%. Both trackers have the NDP in double-digits: 12% from Nanos, 13% from Liaison.

Read the latest releases from Nanos here and Liaison here.

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Here below are the latest federal polls from active firms in the past 30 days:

Liberal support ranges from 41% to 48% nationally, while Conservative support ranges from 30% to 36%.

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Here is the latest 338Canada projection, updated for July 5.

Naturally, with mostly stable numbers in the aggregate over the past week, we see no major changes in the seat projections.

The Liberals remain on top with an average projection of 208 seats, compared to 101 for the Conservatives.

The Bloc Québécois averages 20 seats in Quebec, while the NDP sits at 12 nationally, with a confidence range spanning roughly 4 to 17 seats.

July is usually a quieter month on the polling front—though perhaps not in Quebec or Alberta. Either way, we'll have more analysis next week.

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With the start of another summer, it’s time to think about new beginnings — for political parties!

This week, we’re doing something we haven’t done before. Every December, we draft the party leaders we think will be heading into the sunset. Now, in this first post-Canada Day episode, we’re drafting leaders who we say will be newly installed at the helm of their parties.

The rules are simple: we draft six people onto our teams who we think will (or could) be promoted to party leader between now and next Canada Day. We have a number of provincial leadership races to choose from, but our teams have to include at least one person who we say will win a leadership race that has yet to even be called.

Who will win the first edition of the New Leader Draft? Who has the better team of hopefuls, and who should we have added to our lists? Let us know!

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You can watch the new episode on YouTube:

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🍁Happy Monday morning,

New polling from Abacus Data suggests Canadians outside Alberta are sending two messages at once. They overwhelmingly want Alberta to remain part of Canada, but many are also willing to accommodate at least some of the province’s long-standing grievances if doing so would help keep the federation together.

The survey explores how Canadians outside Alberta view the province’s separatist movement, whether they think it poses a genuine threat to Confederation, what Ottawa could do to keep Alberta in Canada, and whether Albertans' complaints about the federal government are viewed as legitimate.

The first finding is perhaps the least surprising: Canadians overwhelmingly want Alberta to remain in the country. Fully 76% of respondents outside Alberta say they would prefer the province stay in Canada, while only a small minority would rather see it leave.

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The results show only minor regional differences overall. Quebec stands out, but only modestly so: 36% of respondents saying they do not have a strong opinion either way on whether Alberta should remain in Canada. Nevertheless, the proportion of Quebec voters who want Alberta to leave matches the national average at a minuscule 4%.

By party affiliation, Liberal supporters are the strongest proponents of Alberta remaining in Confederation, but supporters of the Conservatives and New Democrats also overwhelmingly prefer Alberta to stay. Even among Conservative supporters—the group most likely to say they would prefer Alberta to leave—that sentiment is confined to just 7% of respondents.

Simply stated: there is no “Let’s kick out Alberta” movement whatsoever, from any region or from any supporters of the main federal parties.

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🍁Happy Sunday, dear 338Canada readers,

This is not a post about the men’s national soccer team, but what a game that was. On to the round of 16 we go on Saturday—against either Morocco or The Netherlands.

Back to politics.

The second half of June brought a flurry of new polls, both federally and provincially, prompting updates across much of the 338Canada network. Let's dive right in.

Federal Update

On the federal front, the latest monthly survey from Léger showed more of the same from previous months, with the Liberals holding a 14-point lead over the Conservatives. We broke the poll down in detail earlier this week. Here are the topline numbers:

Unlike most active firms since spring, Léger continues to see no bounce whatsoever for the NDP since members selected Avi Lewis as the party's new leader in late March. Léger measured NDP support at 6% nationally for the fourth consecutive month—a number that matches the party's disastrous result in the 2025 federal election.

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Eric and I broke that poll down in the latest episode of The Numbers:

While Léger places the Liberals at the top of the current polling range with 48%, it pegs the Conservatives at 34%—almost exactly in the middle of the current bracket.

The picture becomes clearer when looking across all active firms. Here are the latest federal polls released over the past month:

Liberal support currently ranges from 41% to 48%, while the Conservatives sit between 32% and 37%. Excluding Léger's 6%, NDP support ranges from 9% to 14%.

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The latest 338Canada federal projection gives Mark Carney's Liberals an average ten-point advantage over the Conservatives.

Because the polling averages have remained remarkably stable for several weeks, changes in the seat projection are mostly marginal. The Liberals remain well ahead of the pack with an average of 207 seats, compared to 102 for the Conservatives. The Bloc Québécois averages 21 seats and the NDP 11.

The 338Canada government approval tracker also remains firmly in positive territory for the Carney government: 56% approval versus 35% disapproval, for a net rating of +21.

Find all the federal numbers here.

Quebec update on new 127-seat map

It became official earlier this month: after months of waiting, the new Quebec electoral map is now live on 338 Quebec (and in French on Qc125).

Two new seats have been added to the National Assembly: Bellefeuille in the Laurentians and Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie in the Centre-du-Québec region. Both currently lean toward the Parti Québécois, though the CAQ could make them competitive if Premier Christine Fréchette continues to revive her party’s fortunes.

Here is the latest Quebec projection. Notice how much wider the PQ and CAQ distributions have become. That’s no coincidence: the two parties’ seat projections are highly correlated.

The latest Quebec projection is available here.

338 Ontario Update

There is also a fair amount of disagreement over where the race in Ontario currently stands. Recent polls from Liaison Strategies and Spark Advocacy show a dead heat between Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives and the leaderless Ontario Liberals. Meanwhile, the latest Abacus Data poll, first published in the Toronto Star, still places the PCs north of 40% province-wide: 41% PC to 32% OLP.

Here is the latest 338 Ontario seat projection. With current numbers, the most likely outcome remains a PC minority government, averaging 55 seats, compared with 38 for the Liberals and 28 for the Ontario NDP.

As with the federal race, trust the average. See all the numbers from this Ontario update here.

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Nova Scotia Update

We hadn’t updated the Nova Scotia projection since winter because the electoral map was changing and we were waiting for the legislature’s newest riding to be added.

In last week’s by-election, Tim Houston’s PC candidate Claude Bourgeois won the inaugural contest in Chéticamp-Margarees-Pleasant Bay by nine points over the Liberals.

See all the numbers from this Nova Scotia update here.

Manitoba Update: Kinew on cruise control

There is little sign of a competitive race developing in Manitoba.

The latest quarterly Probe Research poll gave Wab Kinew's NDP a commanding 23-point province-wide lead over the Progressive Conservatives, fully in line with previous Probe surveys.

We updated the Manitoba projection and, unsurprisingly, the NDP remains comfortably alone on top with an average of 40 seats, compared with 18 for the PCs.

Read all the details from this Manitoba projection here.

That will be all for tonight.

And again: Hell, yeah—Go Canada! ⚽

As always, thanks to all subscribers of the 338Canada newsletter.🍁❤️

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With the summer now getting started, a series of new polls suggest that Mark Carney’s Liberals are starting the season in a good spot, while Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives can’t seem to get any momentum going.

Will the summer months provide a respite to the two parties, or could it prove to be a cruel summer in the polls for either of them?

This week on The Numbers, we dissect the new federal polls that have been published over the last week.

We also break down some provincial polls out of Ontario, Quebec, Manitoba and New Brunswick, as well as discuss the results of a provincial by-election in Nova Scotia.

Then, Philippe is back with a 1979-themed Quiz.

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You can watch the episode on YouTube:

… or listen to the episode on your favourite platform:

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🍁Happy Wednesday, dear readers,

First off, today is June 24, so happy St-Jean-Baptiste Day to all French Canadians, and Joyeuse Fête nationale à tous les Québécois et Québécoises! ⚜️💙

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Last month's Léger federal poll had many observers scratching their heads: Liberals at 50% nationally, sixteen points ahead of the Conservatives, while the NDP remained stuck at 6% despite a year of post-election rebuilding.

Léger's newest numbers, released this morning, show remarkably little change. The Carney Liberals remain dominant at 48% nationally (-2), fourteen points ahead of the Conservatives at 34%, while the NDP sits unchanged at 6% for the fourth consecutive Léger survey.

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🍁Happy Monday morning, dear readers,

In its latest federal polling, Léger measured how Canadians view the frequency and impact of extreme weather events, their level of concern about climate change, and their support for water restrictions during shortages.

First, Léger’s data show that many Canadians believe events such as forest fires, unusual temperature swings within the same season, and extreme heat are occurring more often today than they were five years ago.

A notable shift from last year: the share of Canadians who say forest fires are a growing concern is down nine points, as is concern about poor air quality. At the same time, concern about extreme heat is up six points.

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Which raises the question: Do Canadians believe extreme weather events will become more frequent in the future?

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🍁Happy Summer Solstice, dear 338Canada readers,

The House of Commons has risen for the summer. The federal landscape has shifted tremendously compared to when the winter sitting began in late January. For one, the Liberals now hold a majority in Parliament, removing the constant uncertainty and speculation over when Canadians might be called back to the voting booths.

That majority also puts the country's opposition parties, most notably the Conservatives, in the more difficult position of trying to remain in the conversation.

The Conservatives have not led a poll from a recognized firm since last December. Pollsters continue to disagree on the size of the Liberal lead, but they all agree on the broader picture: Mark Carney's Liberals remain comfortably ahead, and government satisfaction remains in positive territory 14 months after last year's general election.

Here below are the latest polls from active firms on the federal scene in the past month. The Liberal lead ranges from 8 to 16 points over the Conservatives.

We will keep today's update short. It is the longest day of the year in the Northern Hemisphere, after all.

Government approval appears to have stabilized after weeks of slow erosion. In today's update, the Carney government posts 55% approval against 34% disapproval, for a net score of +21.

The Liberals average 201 seats in today's projection update, compared to 107 for the Conservatives.

Although Bloc Québécois support has generally hovered around the party's 2025 election result, Liberal dominance in Quebec has pushed the Bloc's average down to 20 seats. The NDP sits at an average of 13 seats.

Will the summer months erode the Carney government's standing among Canadian voters? Last summer cannot really serve as a precedent, as Canada had just emerged from an election campaign that produced a Liberal minority government—strong enough to govern comfortably, but still a minority nonetheless.

All the federal numbers are available here.

We will continue to post updates throughout the summer, but we will also focus on updating features across the site—a perfect coding activity for warm summer months. No, really.

As always, thanks to all subscribers of the 338Canada newsletter.🍁❤️

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Good morning, dear readers,

Just a quick note to highlight an update to the Quebec projection, prompted by a pair of polls from Léger and Pallas Data released earlier this week.

The Quebec landscape is not getting any simpler. For those who thought the next provincial election would boil down to a straightforward faceoff between the Parti Québécois and the Quebec Liberals, think again.

The CAQ has climbed back from the abyss.

The Parti Québécois remains the clear favourite according to the latest numbers, but its path to a majority—which looked like the most likely outcome just a few months ago—has become considerably more complicated.

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Take a look at the PQ and CAQ bell curves below. Both have widened significantly, reflecting a growing range of plausible outcomes. The recent improvement in CAQ support among francophone voters has come at the expense of both the PQ and the Liberals.

Should the CAQ gain a few more points among francophones, the PQ’s chances of securing a majority government would decline sharply.

One note: this is the last Quebec update using the current 125-seat electoral map. Over the coming days, Qc125 will migrate to the new 127-seat map that will be used in the October 5 election.

The complete projection is available on 338Canada Quebec here.

More to come soon.🍁❤️

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📊The summer political season is just about to begin as MPs prepare to return to their ridings, so it’s time to take stock of where things stand in the polls.

Are we seeing a new level of stability at a new level of support for Mark Carney’s Liberals?

This week on The Numbers, we dissect new federal, Quebec and B.C. poll numbers.

And, after last week’s debacle, Philippe comes back with another challenging Quiz. One hundred years ago this week, the King-Byng affair erupted. Let’s celebrate with a quiz on the election that led to it.

Can Éric get any redemption after being humbled so thoroughly?

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You can watch the episode on YouTube:

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Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s criticism of the federal government’s proposed high-speed rail project generated no shortage of headlines last week in Quebec media.

The Alto line would link Quebec City and Toronto, with stops in Trois-Rivières, Laval, Montreal, Ottawa, and Peterborough. Reaching speeds of more than 300 kilometres per hour, the trains would cut the trip from Montreal to Toronto to about three hours, while travel between Montreal and Quebec City would take roughly ninety minutes.

St-Pierre Plamondon was unconvinced.

Read the full column and poll results here.

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The parliamentary session at the National Assembly ended on Friday, and with that, the pre-election campaign is underway. Where do Quebec parties stand as summer approaches? A brand-new Quebec poll conducted by Pallas Data and commissioned by 338Canada suggests that the political landscape in Quebec remains as murky as ever.

Across the province, the Parti Québécois remains in the lead with 29% support among decided and likely voters, a result unchanged since Pallas’s previous survey, conducted in early May. The Quebec Liberal Party, meanwhile, has suffered a significant setback: it lost three points and slipped to 25% across Quebec. As we will see below, this decline for the QLP is mainly due to a sharp drop in its support among the Francophone majority.

As for the incumbent CAQ, this poll contains a mix of good and not-so-good news. While new Premier Christine Fréchette seemed to have given her party a boost last month, one might now wonder if the CAQ has already hit a ceiling.

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🍁Happy Sunday morning, dear 338Canada readers,

Well, well, well… if it isn’t the first significant polling divergence of this 45th Parliament.

The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) released a great deal of interesting data last week. The firm's latest quarterly premier report card was unveiled (more on that below), while its newest federal poll showed a softening of support for Mark Carney’s Liberals — quite the opposite of what Léger measured earlier this month.

Here are the latest releases from active firms on the federal scene:

Let’s begin with the NDP and make our way up.

Every recent pollster except Léger places the NDP between 11% and 15%, a relatively normal range for the party. However, Léger stands alone with the NDP at just 6% — matching the party’s 2025 election result.

For the Conservatives, the range is narrower but still notable: from 29% in the latest Nanos tracker to 36% in the Abacus and ARI polls. Thirty-six percent would still leave the CPC well behind if Liberal support remains north of 40%, but 29% would represent an altogether different level of trouble for the Conservatives in general and for Pierre Poilievre specifically.

As for the Liberals, once again there appears to be a rough consensus on where the governing party stands… were it not for Léger. Liaison, ARI, Nanos, Abacus and Pallas Data all place the Liberals between 40% and 45%, while Léger stands alone with the LPC at 50%.

None of this implies that Léger is wrong and the others are right, or vice-versa. In a universe where the Liberals truly stand around the 45% mark, one should expect the occasional poll at 40% and the occasional poll at 50%. When we plot the latest numbers on the ol’ bullseye chart, the divergence appears much less dramatic.

Obviously, it is our electoral system that makes the difference between the Léger and ARI numbers appear so stark. Consider the seat projection estimates below:

Taken at face value, Léger’s latest numbers would produce the largest majority in Canadian history, with near-sweeps for the Liberals in Atlantic Canada and British Columbia, more than 90 seats in Ontario, and a Liberal takeover of Quebec. This is what a 14-point Liberal lead and a marginal NDP can produce under first-past-the-post.

Using only ARI’s latest numbers, however, the estimate produces a Parliament that resembles the current seat distribution in the House of Commons (floor-crossers included), along with a modest rebound for the NDP.

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Single-poll seat projections make for fun thought experiments, but here at 338 HQ we prefer to follow the (weighted) average. So let’s update the federal projection.

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