A few weeks ago we asked a question — will Mark Carney get another Trump bump?

Well, we have the answer. And the answer is a resounding yes.

Subscribe now

Recent polls show that support for Mark Carney personally and for the Liberals more broadly has increased over the last few weeks as Canadians get behind the prime minister’s decision to cease trade negotiations with the United States. Polls also show that Canadians support counter-tariffs and no compromise with the Americans, a feeling that is unlikely to dissipate as the Trump administration continues to insult and belittle the country.

This week on The Numbers, we delve into the latest federal polls. We also take a look at the ongoing struggles of Pierre Poilievre as his party falls further back.

Plus, we break down the latest in the Quebec election campaign and give our thoughts on what to make of the three Ontario provincial by-elections that occurred last week.

Subscribe now

The episode is available on YouTube:

You may also listen to the episode on your favourite platform:

• Apple Podcasts

• Spotify

• Acast

• Podbean

Want to support our podcast and enjoy more of The Numbers?

Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. Also: Ad-free episodes!

You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.

Subscribe now

🍁Happy Labour Day, dear readers,

A new Quebec poll from Pallas was released this morning. Four weeks from election day, where do the major political parties stand in Quebec public opinion?

This Pallas Data poll was conducted on September 5, 2026, with a total sample of 1,100 Quebec respondents. The poll’s margin of error is ±3 percentage points for the total sample, 19 times out of 20 (the margin of error increases for regional and demographic subsamples).

Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

Subscribe now

Province-wide, the Parti Québécois remains in the lead with 29% support among decided and likely voters. This is the same result for the PQ as in the previous Pallas survey conducted a week earlier. All the announcements, promises, and events of the past week — whether potentially beneficial or damaging to the PQ — have therefore not significantly shifted the numbers over the past seven days, according to Pallas.

So is this bad news for the PQ? Not necessarily, since the CAQ’s support is also stagnant. Across Quebec, “Équipe Christine Fréchette” garners 24% support — a figure that has also remained unchanged since the previous Pallas poll. The momentum Christine Fréchette enjoyed just before the official start of the campaign seems to have run out of steam.

Subscribe now

🍁338Canada is an independent media outlet funded by its readers.
📊Help us preserve this independence by subscribing here.

As for the Quebec Liberals, they sit at 20%, down two points from last week. Although this variation is within the poll’s margin of error, it still points in the wrong direction for the PLQ, reinforcing the perception that the Liberals are either losing ground or, at best, treading water.

Next come the Quebec Conservative Party with 15% and Québec solidaire, which garners 11%.

Among the Francophone majority, Pallas detects no statistically significant shift: the Parti Québécois remains in the lead with 34%, eight points ahead of the CAQ at 26%. The Conservatives are now in third place according to Pallas with 16%, followed by the PLQ (12%) and QS (11%) bringing up the rear.

Breakdowns by age group once again reveal a notable generational divide. Among 18- to 49-year-olds, the Parti Québécois leads a highly divided vote — with 27% among 18- to 34-year-olds and 31% among 35- to 49-year-olds. However, as we have observed in virtually every poll since the campaign began, the CAQ takes the lead among those aged 50 and older.

Pallas also asked respondents about their level of satisfaction with Christine Fréchette’s government, using the same wording as in its previous surveys:

To what extent are you satisfied with the performance of the Quebec government, led by Christine Fréchette?

The figures suggest both good and bad news for the CAQ: dissatisfaction is down eight points compared to the Pallas poll conducted in early August, while satisfaction is up three points. The bad news? The net satisfaction rating remains deeply negative.

In total, 51% of respondents say they are either very dissatisfied or somewhat dissatisfied with Christine Fréchette’s government, compared to 21% who say they are very or somewhat satisfied — a net differential of -30.

Here are the satisfaction and dissatisfaction rates measured by Pallas since Christine Fréchette became Quebec premier last spring:

Subscribe now

Pallas also measured public perceptions of party leaders, using the same survey wording as in recent years:

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of the leader of the [party name], [leader’s name]?

While Premier Fréchette still has a negative net favourability rating, her favourable impressions have climbed to 31% (+7), a more pronounced increase than her unfavourable impressions, which stand at 49% (+2).

As for her main rival, PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, his ratings have taken a hit and fallen back to the low recorded last June. Province-wide, 55% of respondents say they have an unfavourable impression of the PQ leader, a statistically significant increase of six points in one month. With 30% holding a favourable impression — on par with the premier — PSPP’s net rating drops to -25.

This is the PQ leader’s worst score since Pallas began tracking impressions of party leaders in 2024.

This may be the main paradox of this poll: despite the deterioration in perceptions of its leader, the PQ is not losing any ground in voting intentions. Conversely, the improvement in perceptions of Christine Fréchette is not, at least for now, providing any new momentum for the CAQ.

But perceptions of party leaders can sometimes serve as leading indicators. At the very least, the decline in the PQ leader’s personal ratings could lower the potential ceiling of support for his party, even though the PQ remains in the lead and the favourite with four weeks left in the campaign.

Here are the national figures for each of the leaders:

All figures from this Pallas poll are available on 338Canada Quebec here.

A full update of the Quebec seat projection will be published later today.

Thank you to the subscribers of the 338Canada newsletter. Your support in keeping this newsletter independent is immensely appreciated..🍁❤️

Subscribe now

🍁Happy Sunday, dear 338Canada readers,

It is Labour Day weekend, which means many Canadians will return to their fall routines shortly. The school year has begun at nearly all levels, the days are noticeably getting shorter, the Jays are in the playoff hunt (!) and the hockey season is just around the corner. (Go Habs.)

Politically, the Quebec campaign rages on and the Alberta referendum looms on the horizon.

Last week, the Liberals swept a trio of by-elections, holding North Vancouver—Capilano and Beaches—East York, and gaining Chicoutimi—Le Fjord from the Conservatives. My podcast partner Eric Grenier and I discussed the results at length in the latest episode of The Numbers:

Oh, and barring a last-minute turn of events — and we know those can happen — Canada will impose counter-tariffs on U.S. products later this week, in retaliation for the U.S. administration’s escalation of the trade war.

A new Léger federal poll suggests Canadians appear ready to fight back.

Welcome to the 338 Sunday Update.

Subscribe now

From Léger’s latest:

Do you agree or disagree with Mark Carney’s federal government’s decision to impose new tariffs on certain U.S. products imported into Canada?

From coast to coast, 74% of Canadians back the government’s decision to impose new tariffs on U.S. products, against only 13% who oppose it — a margin of more than 60 points in favour of the government’s decision, a result that displays near-unanimity on the question. I’m not sure even “Do you enjoy chocolate cake?” would match such numbers.

Regionally, agreement with the government surpasses 75% in Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia. While approval of the decision is lower in Atlantic Canada and the Prairies, it is only marginally so: over 60% of voters in those regions agree with Carney’s decision.

Subscribe now

🍁338Canada is an independent media funded by its readers.
📊Help us preserve this independence by subscribing here.

Read more

Mark Carney’s Liberals scored three big wins in Monday’s by-elections, taking a seat from the Conservatives and dealing the party another blow.

What do the results say about support for the Liberals, the NDP and the Bloc, and what do they mean for Pierre Poilievre’s leadership?

This week on The Numbers, we break down what happened on Monday night. We also take a look at the latest federal polling numbers, as well as lay out the state of the race as the Quebec election enters the second week of the campaign.

Plus, we preview tonight’s provincial by-elections in Ontario and take a look at some new polling numbers out of Alberta.

We also answer questions from our members, including on what is happening with the B.C. Conservative Party.

Subscribe now

The episode is available on YouTube:

You may also listen to the episode on your favourite platform:

• Apple Podcasts

• Spotify

• Acast

• Podbean

Want to support our podcast and enjoy more of The Numbers?

Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. Also: Ad-free episodes!

You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.

Share

🍁Happy Tuesday morning, dear readers,

Well, that wasn’t close.

The Liberals swept all three by-elections last night, adding to their parliamentary majority ahead of the House of Commons’ return later this month.

While nothing in the data suggested the Liberals were in danger in North Vancouver—Capilano or Beaches—East York, we were wondering whether Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, which had been held by Conservative MP Richard Martel through the past three general elections, could go red for the first time since 2015.

And it sure did.

Compared with last year’s general election results in the riding, the Bloc Québécois’ share of the vote remained mostly stable, gaining just under two points. The Conservatives, however, completely collapsed, falling from 34% with Martel in April 2025 to only 12.5% with CPC candidate Régis Gaudreault.

The Liberals jumped 20 points, from 31% to 51%.

The results of all three by-elections will be added to the model for next Sunday’s federal update.

More analysis to come this week.

Thanks, as always, to all subscribers of this newsletter who make 338Canada possible.🍁❤️

Subscribe now

🍁 Happy Monday, dear 338Canada readers,

Last week’s crash of the main 338Canada and Qc125 sites forced me to spend much of the weekend coding and reloading the sites, and my brain was mush by the time it came to write the usual Sunday update. Apologies for the delay, dear readers.

Also of note: Three federal by-elections will conclude tonight in North Vancouver—Capilano, Beaches—East York, and Chicoutimi—Le Fjord.

While nothing in the data suggests the Liberals should be in trouble in North Vancouver—Capilano or Beaches—East York, Chicoutimi—Le Fjord is projected to be a battle between the Liberals and the Bloc Québécois.

Tonight’s results in Chicoutimi could therefore serve as an important barometer of where the main federal parties stand in francophone Quebec.

Subscribe now

My podcast partner and I will livestream the results tonight on YouTube, starting at 9pm, Eastern time. Join us!

Subscribe now

🍁338Canada is an independent media funded by its readers.
📊Help us preserve this independence by subscribing here.

In recent weeks, the polls have shown very favourable numbers for the Carney Liberals.

The federal projections were updated yesterday.

The 338Canada approval tracker also saw an uptick for the government in recent days. The latest update has average approval at 56%, against 33% disapproval — a net rating of +22 when considering the decimals.

The Liberals have climbed to an average of 222 seats, against 84 for the Conservatives.

There are no major regional changes to report, but the Liberals have now hit the 100-seat mark on average in Ontario alone — a feat not reached since the 338Canada tracker was launched in 2017.

More to come this week.

Thanks, as always, to all subscribers of this newsletter who make 338Canada possible.🍁❤️

Subscribe now

🍁Happy Saturday, dear readers,

New polling from Liaison Strategies offers an updated look at Ontario’s political landscape and suggests Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives may indeed be rebounding following the latest breakdown in Canada-U.S. trade negotiations.

The poll found that 39% of Ontarians would vote for Ford’s PCs if an election were held today, compared with 35% for the leaderless Ontario Liberals. Marit Stiles’ NDP stands at 20%, while Mike Schreiner’s Green Party sits at just 2%.

However, Ford’s PCs aren’t the only governing party polling strongly in Ontario. At the federal level, Mark Carney’s Liberals continue to hold a sizeable lead in the province.

Subscribe now

🍁338Canada is an independent media funded by its readers.
📊Help us preserve this independence by subscribing here.

Read more

It’s been a tumultuous week on the U.S. trade relations file, as negotiations fell apart, tariffs and retaliatory tariffs were threatened and applied and insults flew back and forth across the U.S.-Canada border, notably between President Donald Trump and Ontario Premier Doug Ford. (Lots of “real estate”…)

But how are Canadians reacting — and going to react — to Mark Carney’s handling of the issue, as well as these renewed attacks on the country from the unpopular U.S. president?

The Numbers is back this week (and for the long haul!) to take a look at what the polls say about how Canadians are digesting the news, including in Ontario where Ford has appeared to have rebounded.

Plus, with three federal by-elections scheduled on Monday in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, Beaches—East York and North Vancouver—Capilano, we play our usual game of over/under. Can the Liberals (or Bloc) pick up Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, or will the Conservatives avoid losing their first seat in a byelection in nearly a decade?

Subscribe now

Then, with Quebec’s election call expected on Thursday (hence our one-day-early episode), we break down the state of the race with just hours to go before its official launch.

You may also listen to the episode on your favourite platform:

• Apple Podcasts

• Spotify

• Acast

• Podbean

Want to support our podcast and enjoy more of The Numbers?

Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. Also: Ad-free episodes!

You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.

Subscribe now

🍁Happy Sunday morning, dear readers,

Welcome to the 338 Sunday Update.

Polls have shown that Canadians’ patience with the snail-paced progress on Canada-U.S. trade relations has been wearing thin.

Thus far, however, this growing impatience does not appear to have negatively affected perceptions of Mark Carney and his Liberal government. Polls in the coming weeks should tell us whether that needle has moved in either direction, but government approval has not suffered significantly since the trade dispute flared up again last month.

At least for now, most Canadian voters appear to be placing the blame squarely on the U.S. administration.

Subscribe now

Last week’s timely Léger poll on Canadians’ mood regarding the negotiations — fielded before talks fell apart on Friday night — suggested that voters north of the border believed the Canadian government had not stood up strongly enough to U.S. demands.

By a margin of 25 points, Canadians said they wanted the federal government to take a harder line with the Americans and make no further concessions.

This sentiment was shared by a plurality of voters in every polling region of the country, and by a majority of supporters of all major parties.

Find the complete Léger poll here.

Subscribe now

Escalating trade disputes are always risky endeavours for governments, regardless of political stripe. But Carney continues to benefit from a significant political advantage: Canadians’ extraordinarily poor opinion of the U.S. president. For all the frustration surrounding the negotiations, voters still appear far more inclined to blame the man across the table than the one representing Canada.

To wit: A new poll from Pollara Strategic Insights, once again fielded before last week’s drama, found that only 9% of Canadians hold a positive opinion of Donald Trump — an all-time low in Pollara’s tracking since Trump returned to the White House in January 2025.

🍁338Canada is an independent media funded by its readers.
📊Help us preserve this independence by subscribing here.

Read more

Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, whose promise to hold a third referendum on Quebec’s secession from Canada “before the decade is out” has been a defining feature of his leadership, has evidently seen the same polls as the rest of us in recent months.

The PQ leader announced on social media that an eventual PQ government would not hold a referendum as long as Donald Trump remains president of the United States. St-Pierre Plamondon had hinted at such a possibility last February after the PQ’s by-election victory in Chicoutimi, but that commitment has now been made explicitly and officially.

This could be about Trump. Or you could point to three consecutive Quebec polls released in early August that measured support for sovereignty at near historic lows.

Read the full column here.

Subscribe now

🍁Happy Wednesday morning, dear readers,

Is there a tentative deal to avoid further U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods? More details should be known later today, but a timely Léger poll released this morning suggests that a majority of Canadians no longer want government negotiators to bend to U.S. demands.

Additionally, according to Léger, few Canadians believe the Carney government has been aggressive in its negotiations and has stood up to the United States.

Let’s dive into the data.

Subscribe now

Léger asked respondents:

Based on what you have read, heard or seen, which of the following descriptions best describes how you feel Prime Minister Carney and the Government of Canada has approached the negotiations for a new trade deal with the United States?

A plurality of respondents nationally (38%) believe the Canadian government has been passive and has made concessions to U.S. negotiators. Another 30% believe the government has taken a balanced approach.

Only 15% believe the government has been aggressive in the current trade negotiations and has stood up to the United States.

After measuring Canadians' impressions of the government's approach so far, Léger followed up by asking what approach they would prefer going forward:

In your opinion, how would you like the Government of Canada to approach the negotiations with the United States?

There is no unanimity on this question, but there is a clear preference: 56% believe the Canadian government should take a hard line and make no more concessions, compared with 31% who favour greater flexibility and additional concessions.

Regionally, taking a hard line is the preferred approach in every region measured. It receives majority support everywhere except Alberta, where it nevertheless leads the more flexible approach by 46% to 38%.

Léger finds majorities among supporters of all four major federal parties favouring a hard line with U.S. negotiators. Bloc Québécois voters are the most emphatic, at 79%, followed by NDP voters at 69%.

Perhaps most noteworthy, 58% of current Liberal voters also favour taking a hard line and making no more concessions. Even among Conservative voters, 51% prefers the harder approach.

Subscribe now

Canadians also appear willing to support retaliatory trade measures should negotiations continue to drag on.

According to Léger, seven in ten would support imposing a special tax on electricity and fossil fuels sold to the United States.

And when it comes to U.S. alcohol—which remains absent from many provincially managed liquor stores—64% of Canadians support maintaining the ban on American products.

Taken together, these numbers point to a fairly clear message from Canadian voters: patience for further concessions appears to be running thin.

More analysis to come this week.

Thanks to all subscribers of this newsletter who make 338Canada possible.🍁❤️

Subscribe now

Read the full Léger report here.

🍁Happy Sunday, dear readers, and welcome to the 338 Sunday Update.

We were treated to a flurry of new federal polls last week, and while the numbers differed considerably from one another — especially on where the Conservatives currently stand — the overall trend wasn’t particularly friendly to Pierre Poilievre’s CPC.

We always urge caution with “summer polling,” but the latest numbers suggest Poilievre and his MPs may be anxious to get back to Ottawa. So far, time away from the theatre of the House of Commons hasn’t done their polling numbers any favours.

Here below are the latest federal polls from active firms over the past 30 days. Liberal support among decided and leaning voters ranges from 40% with Angus Reid to 47% with Research Co.

The Conservative range is even wider: from just 27% with Research Co. and EKOS to 36% with Angus Reid.

The disagreement between pollsters is therefore notable — from a single-digit lead to an advantage of 15+ points for the Liberals — but notice what they are mostly disagreeing about: the size of the Liberal lead, not whether there is one.

Subscribe now

Here is the 338Canada “bullseye chart,” showing the latest Liberal and Conservative numbers compared with the 338Canada weighted polling average.

The much-awaited monthly Léger poll, released last week, showed mostly steady numbers since June: 46% for the Liberals (-2), 34% for the Conservatives (unchanged) and 8% for the NDP (+2).

Léger did measure some erosion in government approval since the spring, but the numbers remain — for now — quite favourable for Mark Carney and the Liberals. According to Léger’s latest, 55% approve of the federal government’s performance, against 38% who disapprove, for a net approval rating of +17.

One data point stands out from this morning’s Abacus Data poll: the possibility that the Liberals have lost significant ground in Quebec to the Bloc Québécois.

Abacus measured Liberal support at 37% in Quebec, with the Bloc close behind at 35%.

Could Abacus have caught the beginning of a genuine shift in Quebec? It’s certainly possible. But with a Quebec subsample of n=298 respondents — and every other recent poll showing a substantially larger Liberal lead — we need more evidence before calling it a trend.

Here below are the latest federal polls in Quebec, including a large-sample Quebec-only poll from Synopsis Recherche that measured a 16-point Liberal lead in the province.

For now, Abacus stands alone in showing such a tight Liberal-Bloc race. We will keep a close eye on Quebec numbers in the coming days to see whether the firm caught an early trend — or merely statistical noise.

Subscribe now

Let us now update the 338Canada federal projections.

Based on the latest polling, the Liberals stand, on average, close to their 2025 election result in popular support, while the Conservatives have slipped to their lowest level in the 338Canada tracker since December 2022 — three months into Poilievre’s leadership.

🍁 338Canada is an independent, reader-funded publication.
📊 Help us keep it that way by subscribing here. Thank you for your support!

Read more

The polls over the last few weeks have not been kind to the Conservatives, as multiple surveys have put the party under the psychologically important threshold of 30%.

What does this mean for Pierre Poilievre, and could some upcoming by-elections be points of no return for his leadership?

This week on The Numbers, we break down the plethora of recent polls that have been published and what they say for Mark Carney and Avi Lewis, as well as the Conservative leader.

We also discuss a trio of new polls out of Quebec that point to an unpredictable provincial election, as well as two new polls out of Ontario that have better news for Doug Ford ahead of three by-elections.

Then, we dive into the mailbag to answer some questions, including what odds we’d give an early election call.

Subscribe now

You listen to the new episode on YouTube:

You may also listen to the episode on your favourite platform:

• Apple Podcasts

• Spotify

• Acast

• Podbean

Want to support our podcast and enjoy more of The Numbers?

Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. Also: Ad-free episodes!

You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.

Subscribe now

We were treated to a trio of federal polls this morning, all of which could give the current Conservative leadership team nightmares.

The latest—and always much-awaited—Léger poll measures Liberal support at 46% nationally, 12 points ahead of the Conservatives at 34%.

That 34%, incidentally, is essentially where Andrew Scheer in 2019 and Erin O’Toole in 2021 led the CPC in their respective general elections.

Subscribe now

In short: not even close to enough to remain competitive with the Liberals at their current level of support, especially with the NDP still stuck at 8% in this poll and the low double digits in many recent ones.

Taken on their own, Léger’s numbers would point to a potentially crushing Liberal majority:

As for government approval, Léger sees Carney’s numbers sliding somewhat since June, but still comfortably in positive territory. According to the latest poll, 55% approve of the Carney government, compared with 38% who disapprove.

That gives the government a net approval rating of +17, down five points since June. Here is Léger’s government approval tracker since last fall:

See Léger’s numbers here.

Subscribe now

Léger was not alone this morning.

The latest poll from Research Co. finds an even wider, 20-point chasm between the Liberals and Conservatives:

Research Co. also has Mark Carney leading Pierre Poilievre by 23 points on its preferred prime minister metric:

See Research Co.’s complete numbers here.

Subscribe now

Finally, the latest Liaison Strategies tracker measures a 13-point Liberal lead, with the LPC at 44% and the CPC at 31%.

See Liaison’s latest numbers here.

Three polls, three double-digit Liberal leads.

More to come this week.

Thank you to all 338Canada subscribers for your support.🍁❤️

Subscribe now

🍁Happy Monday morning, dear readers,

Canada's latest political fundraising reports offer another glimpse at the financial strength of the country's major parties—and, in a few cases, suggest the landscape may be shifting.

Here’s how the federal parties, along with their provincial counterparts in Alberta and British Columbia, performed during the second quarter of 2026.

Federal: Liberals Close the Gap

At the federal level, the Conservatives remain Canada's fundraising champions, but their advantage over the Liberals has narrowed considerably since last year's election.

The Conservatives raised $5.05 million during the second quarter, down from more than $6 million at the end of 2025. The Liberals, meanwhile, brought in $4.36 million, leaving less than $700,000 between the two parties.

Subscribe now

🍁 338Canada is an independent, reader-funded publication.
📊 Help us keep it that way by subscribing here. Thank you for your support!

Read more

🍁Happy Sunday, dear 338Canada readers,

The Conservatives will soon lose their eighth MP of this Parliament. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations MP Larry Brock announced that he would step down in September.

Since the Conservatives’ 2025 defeat against the Carney Liberals, four CPC MPs have crossed the floor and join the Liberals — Chris d’Entremont (Acadie—Annapolis) , Michael Ma (Markham—Unionville), Matt Jeneroux (Edmonton Riverbend) and Marilyn Gladu (Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong).

Chicoutimi—Le Fjord CPC MP Richard Martel accepted Carney’s invitation to join the Senate in July. Saskatchewan MP Cathy Wagantall (Yorkton—Melville) and now Larry Brock have announced their intentions to step down this fall.

And, of course, Damien Kurek vacated his seat of Battle River—Crowfoot so that CPC leader Pierre Poilievre could return to the House after Poilievre’s defeat in his longtime riding of Carleton in the 2025 general election.

Subscribe now

While our immediate by-election focus will be on the trio of August 31 contests—including the closely fought Chicoutimi—Le Fjord—a case could be made that the upcoming Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations by-election will be even more important for the Conservatives in the short term.

In 2025, Chicoutimi—Le Fjord was a tight three-way race, with only three points separating first and third place. With Martel gone, it would hardly be a shock to see the Conservatives lose Chicoutimi—Le Fjord. (To which party? That remains anybody’s guess.)

But Brantford? Losing such a reliable Conservative seat in small-city and rural Ontario would be a far more troubling sign for the current CPC leadership.

The last time the Conservatives failed to win this riding—or an earlier version of it—was in 2006, when the Liberals eked out a one-point victory. Conservatives have won it comfortably ever since: in 2008, 2011, 2015, 2019, 2021 and 2025. Last year, Brock received more than 52% of the vote, finishing 11 points ahead of his Liberal challenger.

As for Pierre Poilievre, the numbers continue to show how dramatically his star has faded since Carney took over the Liberals 18 months ago. Yet the Conservative voter base still appears firmly behind him.

In July, the Angus Reid Institute found that 33% of Canadians held a favourable impression of Poilievre, compared with 60% who viewed him unfavourably—a net favourability rating of -27. Among 2025 Conservative voters, however, 76% viewed Poilievre favourably and only 20% unfavourably, for a net score of +56.

In last week’s Nanos Research Preferred Prime Minister tracker (fielded July 10–31, 2026), Poilievre trailed Carney by 38 points—the widest gap between the two since Carney entered federal politics.

Let’s go over the latest polls and update the federal projections.

Subscribe now

🍁 338Canada is an independent, reader-funded publication.
📊 Help us keep it that way by subscribing here. Thank you for your support!

Read more

Quebec is headed for an election in October, and things are tightening. A Parti Québécois victory would almost certainly reopen the constitutional question. While the party has moderated some of its rhetoric, its raison d’être remains Quebec independence, making the next election consequential well beyond provincial politics.

According to the latest Quebec poll from Pallas Data, the PQ holds the lead with 31 percent of support among decided and leaning voters across the province, four points ahead of the Quebec Liberal Party, which stands at 27 percent. Both parties are up two points from Pallas Data’s previous poll in June—a change that falls well within the poll’s margin of error.

Read the full column in The Walrus here.

Subscribe now

🍁Happy Thursday, dear 338Canada readers,

The Parti Québécois has been leading in voting intentions in Quebec since the fall of 2023. Although the numbers could still change during the upcoming provincial campaign, the party remains the clear favorite to win at least a plurality of seats if current trends continue (see the updated 338 Quebec projections here).

However, support for sovereignty is still not growing, according to the results of the most recent Quebec poll by Pallas Data commissioned by 338Canada.

Here is the wording of the question, which has been the same in all Quebec polls from Pallas since 2023:

“If a referendum were held on Quebec’s sovereignty, would you vote for or against Quebec’s sovereignty?”

Province-wide, 29% of respondents say they would vote in favor of Quebec sovereignty if a referendum were held—a statistically significant drop of four points since the previous Pallas poll back in June.

Subscribe now

⚜338Canada is an independent media funded by its readers.
📊Help us preserve this independence by subscribing here.

Read more

🍁Happy Sunday, dear 338Canada readers,

Happy August long weekend to readers from many places in Canada. Today’s post will be brief as I, too, try to enjoy the last days of this summer hiatus—before the rhythm picks up this month. The Quebec general election and Alberta referendum will for sure keep us busy.

Subscribe now

Here are the federal latest polls from active firms in the past 30 days:

As you can see, there is a bit of a spread. We discussed it earlier this week in this post.

It was also a topic of discussion with my podcast partner in last week’s episode of The Numbers:

Here are the updated 338Canada weighted averages:

The Liberals slipped below the 200-seat mark for the first time in months, but still hold a commanding lead in the seat projection with an average of 197 seats, against 106 for the Conservatives.

The Bloc Québécois averages 24 seats and the NDP ,14.

Enjoy August, dear readers. We will be back at full rhythm soon.

Thanks, as always, to all subscribers who make 338Canada possible.🍁❤️

📊338Canada.ca is an independent and reader-supported newsletter.
🍁Take advantage of our Summer 2026 Special here.

Subscribe now

New polls published over the last week agree that the Liberals are ahead — but are they ahead by a little, or by a lot?

This week on The Numbers, we try to make some sense of differing poll numbers that aren’t all good news for Mark Carney (though they are mostly bad news for Pierre Poilievre).

We also discuss the calling of three by-elections in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, Beaches—East York and North Vancouver—Capilano.

Plus, there’s a new poll out of Ontario that has Doug Ford frowning, and Philippe is back with The Quiz!

Subscribe now

You can watch on YouTube:

You may also listen to the episode on your favourite platform:

• Apple Podcasts

• Spotify

• Acast

• Podbean

Want to support our podcast and enjoy more of The Numbers?

Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. Also: Ad-free episodes!

You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.

Subscribe now