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🍁Happy Monday morning, dear readers,

Cariboo-Chilcotin MLA Lorne Doerkson will soon become Premier of British Columbia, following an unlikely election campaign triggered by the B.C. NDP two years before its mandate was set to expire.

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🍁Happy Saturday night, dear readers,

My friend Eric and I will be livestreaming the results of the British Columbia election on YouTube tonight, starting at 8pm PT / 11pm ET.

Join us using this link or watch embedded framed below!

See you all tonight! 🍁❤️

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🍁Good evening dear readers,

The numbers and charts below may not be the very final 338Canada B.C. projections, as I reserve the right to make a few last-minute adjustments tomorrow morning — before polls open — should any additional data come in overnight.

But the polling data has been remarkably consistent, and the picture is clear: The Conservative Party of B.C. is projected to win a majority government in Saturday’s British Columbia election.

Let’s look at the numbers, which you can find on the main 338Canada British Columbia pages.

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The Conservatives are projected to win an average of 57 seats, with a potential ceiling in the high 60s should their support be underestimated by the polls.

The NDP, meanwhile, is projected to win an average of 33 seats. It would take a major polling error for David Eby’s New Democrats to come close to retaining power.

The Greens present an interesting case. When I posted the latest numbers yesterday, even I hadn’t noticed that a third Green seat was potentially in play.

The Greens’ projected average is actually closer to 2.5 seats, with victories projected in Saanich North and the Islands and West Vancouver–Sea to Sky, while Victoria–Beacon Hill remains a Green–NDP toss-up.

But there are no half-seats in the legislature, so we’ll see how that one plays out.

We’ll have our usual post-election breakdown and analysis in the coming days.

For now, however, I hope readers will forgive me for calling it a night and getting some much-needed rest.

It’s been quite a month.

Thank you, dear subscribers, for supporting 338Canada. 🍁❤️

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As the polls had predicted, the Remain side won the Alberta referendum in a landslide, as Albertans opted for the status quo in their province.

But in next-door British Columbia, voters might be about to back a change of a different kind.

This week on The Numbers, Eric and Philippe break down the results of Alberta’s referendum and how the polls performed. We also take a look at where some of the last polls of the B.C. election campaign stand as the NDP’s David Eby looks to be in trouble as his party falls behind Lorne Doerkson’s Conservatives.

Plus, we have federal numbers to dissect (what is going on with the Liberals in Alberta?) and new polls from elsewhere in the country, including a neck-and-neck race in Toronto — and… Saskatchewan?

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🍁Happy post-referendum day, dear readers,

Ballots are still being counted as I write these lines, but as of 5:00 a.m. Alberta time this morning, it appears that roughly three-quarters of Alberta voters have rejected Question 10 of last night’s referendum, which asked whether the province should begin the legal process required to hold a binding referendum on Alberta’s separation from Canada.

And boy, did Canadian pollsters get this one right. Well, most of them.

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Let’s compare the numbers.

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Little more than a week remains in the B.C. election campaign that the NDP’s David Eby set in motion, two years ahead of schedule. The leaders debate took place last night and things could still change. But the polls are not looking good for the New Democrats.

Are they about to lose this election and give Lorne Doerkson and his B.C. Conservatives an unexpected victory?

This week on The Numbers, Eric and Philippe break down the latest polling numbers out of British Columbia. We also set up Monday’s referendum on Alberta independence, take a peek at new federal polls and chat about the mayor’s race in Toronto, where the race seems to be tightening.

Then, we close with a short Quiz (it’s back!) and an extended mailbag segment that is available for our members.

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🍁Happy Wednesday morning, dear readers,

Everybody has a plan until… their unpopular rival unexpectedly resigns and is replaced by someone who seems decent and wholly inoffensive.

With just 10 days left in British Columbia’s 2026 election campaign, the latest polls suggest David Eby’s New Democrats are in serious trouble.

Unless tonight’s leaders’ debate changes the momentum of this campaign, the governing NDP — which held a razor-thin majority of seats at dissolution — could see its nearly decade-long hold on power in Victoria come to an end.

And what a reversal that would be, considering where the parties stood just a month ago.

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Good morning, dear readers,

I was invited to the Culture Lab podcast with Kyla Ronellenfitsch and Gabe De Roche to talk about the fallout from the Quebec election.

Episode is available on all podcast platforms and on YouTube:

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It’s not very often we see a party go from a landslide victory in one election to a complete wipeout in the next. But that’s what happened on Monday when the Coalition Avenir Québec was reduced to zero seats after winning 90 in the last Quebec provincial election.

But the CAQ’s wipeout did not deliver the Parti Québécois a majority government. What happened?

This week on The Numbers, we break down the results of the Quebec election and what it means for politics in the province going forward. We also lay out the state of the race in British Columbia, where Lorne Doerkson’s Conservatives are making David Eby’s New Democrats sweat.

Plus, we chat about the latest federal polls, where things stand in Toronto’s mayoral race and highlight some new numbers out of Atlantic Canada.

Could the Greens elect their first government next year in Prince Edward Island?

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The Parti Québécois is back in power in Quebec, but that doesn’t necessarily mean Quebecers are eager to revisit the question of independence.

According to an election-day survey conducted by Research Co., only 27% of Quebecers say they would vote for independence if a referendum were held today, compared with 58% who would vote to remain in Canada.

Beyond the sovereignty question, the survey also sheds light on how Quebecers voted, their views on Quebec identity, and their priorities for the incoming PQ minority government.

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In 2018, after nearly half a century of alternating Liberal and Parti Québécois governments, François Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec completely blew up Quebec’s established political order. The two parties that had perhaps grown a little too comfortable in their respective roles were thrown into uncontrollable tailspins of doubt and soul searching.

Neither the PQ nor the Quebec Liberal Party recovered in time for the 2022 general election, which Legault’s CAQ won in a landslide, taking ninety seats in the then 125-seat National Assembly. Outside the island of Montreal, the CAQ won eighty-eight of ninety-eight ridings—a near sweep of francophone Quebec.

Read the full column here.

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Prime Minister Mark Carney appears to be walking on water in the polls, as new numbers put the Liberals and their leader at highs not seen before in recent history.

Meanwhile, support for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives drops to new lows as an upcoming resignation means the party will face another tough byelection in the coming months.

This week on The Numbers, we discuss the federal polling landscape and the upcoming byelection in Parry Sound—Muskoka. We then take a look at where the polls are heading in the ongoing Quebec and British Columbia provincial elections, before chatting about new developments in Alberta and Manitoba.

We then answer questions from our members!

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Want to support our podcast and enjoy more of The Numbers?

Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. Also: Ad-free episodes!

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🍁Happy Thursday morning, dear readers,

New polling out of Alberta from Ipsos is shedding light on the political landscape in the province ahead of next month’s referendums, including the closely watched question on Alberta’s future in Canada.

When asked how they would vote if a binding referendum on separation were held, 74 per cent of Albertans said they would vote to stay in Canada. Another 14 per cent said they would vote to leave, while 12 per cent were unsure.

The difference in commitment between the two camps is striking. Among those who would vote to stay, 90 per cent said their choice was definite, while 6 per cent said they would probably stay and 3 per cent said they were leaning toward staying.

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🍁Happy Monday morning, dear 338Canada readers,

Three Quebec polls landed within roughly 12 hours of each other — from Pallas Data, Léger and Synopsis — and while their numbers differ somewhat, they tell essentially the same story.

The Parti Québécois remains ahead with around 30 per cent support, the Conservatives continue to gain ground, and the CAQ is stumbling badly into the final week of the campaign.

With one week to go, the PQ is well positioned to win the most seats on October 5.

But will it be a minority or a majority?

And will the CAQ survive this election? Because a complete wipeout — zero seats — is now well within the range of possibilities.

Let’s look at the latest Quebec numbers.

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🍁Happy Sunday evening, dear 338Canada readers,

It was a jam-packed week, with plenty of action and new numbers from coast to coast. The writ dropped in British Columbia, barely two years after the NDP’s razor-thin 2024 majority victory. A much-anticipated Alberta poll from Janet Brown Opinion Research measured a significant drop for Danielle Smith’s UCP. And as Quebec enters the final stretch of its campaign, the PQ remains in the driver’s seat — albeit with about 30% of the vote.

Oh, and the Carney Liberals keep cruising light-years ahead of the CPC.

Let’s get right into it. Welcome to the 338 Sunday Update.

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Snap Election in B.C.

Let’s start on the West Coast, where B.C. Premier David Eby decided to call a snap election, hoping to take advantage of the turmoil that has surrounded the opposition Conservatives in recent months.

Last weekend’s surprise resignation of B.C. Conservative leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay may have thrown a wrench into the NDP’s plans. The Conservative caucus quickly selected Cariboo-Chilcotin MLA Lorne Doerkson as its new leader.

Early indications from the campaign trail suggest Doerkson may prove a less polarizing political figure than Findlay. Perhaps more importantly, he appears to have the support of the Conservative caucus — something Findlay struggled to maintain throughout her brief tenure as leader.

The first poll of the campaign, released last week by the Angus Reid Institute, suggested that the NDP advantage measured earlier this month had essentially vanished.

We at 338 HQ will follow the B.C. polls closely throughout the campaign and update the projection regularly until voting day on Oct. 24. Bookmark this page to follow along.

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Amid referendum turmoil, Smith takes a hit

When Janet Brown Opinion Research (JBOR) publishes an Alberta poll, the province’s political class pays attention.

The latest from JBOR, released one month before Alberta’s referendum and one year before the next provincial election, measures a significant swing in public opinion away from Danielle Smith’s UCP and towards Naheed Nenshi’s NDP.

See the main tables from this poll here, and JBOR’s detailed report here.

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Quebec: Brace for a PQ victory

The final week of Quebec’s election campaign kicks off tomorrow, and all available data point towards a PQ victory — even though the sovereigntist party hasn’t polled above the 30% mark since early August.

🍁338Canada = Canadian politics by the numbers.
📊Support independent media by subscribing to 338Canada here.

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🍁Happy Friday morning, dear readers,

Fresh Alberta polling from Calgary-based Janet Brown Opinion Research (JBOR) finds Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party (UCP) shedding significant support across the province since last spring.

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Less than a month before Alberta’s much-anticipated referendum and roughly a year from the scheduled provincial election, Naheed Nenshi’s New Democrats and Smith’s UCP are deadlocked in voting intentions at 41% apiece, according to JBOR.

Compared with JBOR’s previous publicly released Alberta poll in April, Smith’s UCP has dropped eight points province-wide, from 49% to 41% — a shift larger than the poll’s margin of error — while the Alberta NDP has climbed five points, from 36% to 41%. No other party polled above the 4% mark.

In Calgary, JBOR measured a notable swing in favour of the NDP since its April poll. The NDP went from trailing the UCP by nine points to leading by eight — a 17-point swing in the margin.

In Edmonton, the numbers are mostly unchanged since the spring, with the NDP leading the UCP by seven points. Outside the two largest cities, the UCP leads the NDP by 17 points — down sharply from its 39-point advantage in April.

As is often the case in Alberta polling, the numbers reveal a significant gender split. Among male voters, the UCP is comfortably ahead by 17 points, 51% to 34%. Among women, the NDP stands at 49%, 19 points ahead of the UCP.

As for the upcoming referendum on whether Alberta should begin the legal process toward a future binding vote on separation from Canada, JBOR finds that 72% of respondents would vote for Alberta to remain a province of Canada, while 23% would support beginning the separation process.

The poll was first published by CBC Calgary. Read CBC’s article on voting intentions here and about the referendum here.

Thanks to all 338Canada subscribers for your support.🍁❤️

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The CBC News random survey of 1,200 Alberta voters was conducted using a hybrid method between Sept. 8 and Sept. 21, 2026. Find the complete report on voting intention here and the report on the referendum vote here.

B.C. Premier David Eby has staked his government on an early election, pitching to voters that U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to Canada’s economy and sovereignty forces him to request a new mandate from voters.

But could the snap election call backfire if those voters instead decide that it was a cynical attempt to take advantage of the disarray within the B.C. Conservative Party?

This week on The Numbers, Eric and Philippe break down Eby’s decision to call an early election and how that could play out in the coming weeks.

We also discuss some of the latest federal polls that have nothing but good news for Prime Minister Mark Carney and a stunning poll out of Manitoba that has the NDP’s Wab Kinew at record-breaking levels of support.

Finally, we take a look at the Quebec election campaign that is entering the final stages.

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The shine may be coming off Quebec Premier Christine Fréchette.

A new Léger poll released Tuesday morning shows the Parti Québécois holding steady at — you guessed it — 29 per cent among decided and leaning voters, six points ahead of the Quebec Liberals at 23 per cent. Fréchette’s CAQ has slipped to third place with 20 per cent, followed by the Conservatives at 17 per cent and Québec solidaire at 10 per cent.

Among francophone voters, the PQ has widened its lead: 37 per cent for the PQ, 24 per cent for the CAQ and 18 per cent for the Conservatives.

More concerning for Fréchette are her personal numbers.

Asked who would make the best premier, 26 per cent of respondents chose PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, up four points from last week. Fréchette has fallen to 19 per cent, a four-point drop since early September.

Those numbers reinforce a trend we saw in Monday’s Pallas Data poll: the so-called “Fréchette effect” that helped lift the CAQ earlier in the campaign appears to be losing steam.

And that could have dramatic consequences in the seat count.

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The CAQ finds itself in a particularly precarious position under Quebec’s first-past-the-post system. Its support is spread across a few dozens competitive ridings rather than concentrated in a regional strongholds. As I wrote last week in L’actualité magazine, within the CAQ’s current range of plausible outcomes, every percentage point gained or lost translates into an average swing of roughly six seats.

And in our electoral system of First-past-the-post, finishing second everywhere doesn’t get you very far.

The PQ approaches majority territory

Here is where things get interesting.

Despite sitting at only 29 per cent in the 338Canada polling average, the PQ now holds a seven-point lead over the Quebec Liberals. With the non-PQ vote increasingly fragmented, that modest province-wide score translates remarkably efficiently into seats.

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The latest 338Canada projection puts the PQ at an average of 62 seats, just two shy of the 64 required for a majority in Quebec’s 127-seat National Assembly. There remains considerable uncertainty, with the PQ’s projected range stretching from 40 to 77 seats.

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🍁Happy Sunday, dear 338Canada readers,

Associate E.U. Member > 51st State? Canadians sure seem to think so — even though the details of what this new Canada-E.U. arrangement would entail remain unclear.

Nevertheless, recent polling shows that building closer ties with Europe, especially to reduce Canada’s dependence on the U.S., is highly popular among Canadian voters.

Let’s dig into the numbers. Welcome to the 338 Sunday Update.

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From last week’s Abacus Data federal poll:

In general, would you support or oppose Canada becoming a member state of the European Union?

While Canada joining the European Union as a full-fledged member does not appear to have ever been in the cards, responses to this question reveal fascinating regional differences.

Majorities of respondents in Quebec, British Columbia and Ontario say they would support the idea, while Canadians living in the Prairies and Atlantic Canada are far more divided.

Nationally, 49% of respondents would welcome Canada becoming a member state of the E.U., while 30% would oppose it. While this 19-point advantage is not negligible, we can hardly conclude that there is a national consensus on the question.

As mentioned above, this poll was fielded before European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen invited Canada to work toward becoming the E.U.’s first “associate member.” With the details of such an arrangement still undefined, we will keep an eye on how Canadians react as more information becomes available.

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However, when it comes to closer economic integration and cooperation with the European Union, the numbers show an overwhelming majority of Canadians in every region would welcome it.

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An investor’s summit, a trip to the European Union that could begin potentially closer ties in the future and, of course, there’s Donald Trump. There’s plenty going on in federal politics right now. But there’s also a lot of upheaval happening in Western Canada. Just what is going on?

This week on The Numbers, we discuss some new developments in Alberta and British Columbia. The Alberta NDP won an upset by-election victory in Calgary this week in a vote that could represent a serious rebuke and warning signal to Premier Danielle Smith.

In B.C., the Conservative Party is now trailing by a wide margin in a new poll as the party continues to disintegrate. Could Premier David Eby call a snap election to take advantage of it?

We also chat about where things stand on the national stage as Mark Carney’s Liberals open up a wider lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, as well as how Canadians might feel about closer ties to Europe.

We then delve into some provincial polling and take another look at the ongoing Quebec election campaign before we answer a few questions from our Patreon members.

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The episode if available on YouTube:

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Want to support our podcast and enjoy more of The Numbers?

Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. Also: Ad-free episodes!

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