More polls are showing some softening support for Mark Carney and the Liberals, while the NDP moves into double-digits. But the trend line isn’t conclusive — except when it comes to the Conservatives, who have shown little life in the polls with one new survey putting the party at a level not seen since before Pierre Poilievre became party leader.

This week on The Numbers, we take a look at the national polling landscape, which seems to be in a moment of some flux.

Then, we dive into the approval ratings of provincial premiers with the latest Angus Reid Institute report card, including Doug Ford’s dropping support.

We also dissect new provincial polls out of Alberta, where Danielle Smith’s referendum drive might be hurting the UCP, British Columbia, where the B.C. Conservatives are up following Kerry-Lynne Findlay’s leadership victory, and Quebec, where the PQ has opened up a wider lead over the slumping Liberals.

Then, Philippe closes with a 1957-themed Quiz.

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🍁Happy Sunday, dear 338Canada readers,

There was no shortage of interesting data released last week in Canadian politics. Federal polls were all over the place (sort of), Alberta's referendum took centre stage, and the B.C. Conservatives have taken a clear lead over the NDP — in the aggregate.

Oh, and four months from today, Quebec will have elected a new National Assembly — yet we still don't know which electoral map will be used. A complete mess by any measure, and a predictable outcome whenever politicians interfere with independent commissions tasked with redrawing electoral boundaries. (Also looking at you, Alberta.)

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Let's begin with federal numbers, then head west.

The two usual federal trackers from Nanos Research and Liaison Strategies were released early in the week, and both painted a similar picture: Liberals in the low 40s, Conservatives in the low 30s, and the NDP in the mid-teens.

The big change from the previous week was, unquestionably, the NDP. Whereas Nanos has measured the party in low double-digits for some time now, Liaison had not, and its 16% figure appeared to come out of nowhere.

Could it be that Avi Lewis's NDP is finally winning back support from left-of-centre voters who lent their votes to the Liberals last year? The narrative was easy to draw, as 16% is much closer to the NDP's historical average than the unusually weak 6% to 9% range measured through much of the past 15 months.

Alas…

… just as we thought we had identified a modest new trend in Canadian public opinion, a new federal poll from Léger took a swing at the whole narrative.

According to Léger, no, actually, the Liberals are stronger than ever at 50% nationally (!), and the NDP remains stuck at 6% — tied with the Bloc Québécois.

So, is Léger the outlier?

That depends on semantics.

Compared to recent federal polls from Léger, this latest survey shows continuity more than any dramatic movement. In fact, Léger’s monthly federal numbers have been remarkably stable since January, even if that 50% result is the highest Liberal score recorded by any polling firm this spring.

From a purely statistical point of view, this poll is not an outlier relative to Léger's own recent data.

The challenge is that Léger has consistently measured higher Liberal support than the broader polling average since the 2025 election. Prior to that election, we had detected no meaningful Liberal-friendly house effect from Léger. And we looked.

So what changed?

Could Léger’s panel be picking up something other firms are missing? It’s certainly possible. But it’s also possible that the truth lies somewhere between Léger’s numbers and those of the federal trackers.

Whatever the explanation, it is difficult to simply dismiss Léger’s findings. The firm has built an exceptional track record over the past decade.

Read Léger’s full report here.

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New federal numbers from Abacus Data were released this morning, and they landed somewhere in the middle — usually not a bad place to be.

Abacus measures the Liberals at 44%, the Conservatives at 36%, and the NDP at 11%.

Yet while voting intentions remain favourable to the Liberals, Abacus detects a gradual cooling in public sentiment toward the federal government.

Approval now stands at 52%, down five points since mid-May, while disapproval climbs three points to 31%. The government's net approval rating remains a healthy +21, a figure many governments would envy, but it is nevertheless down from +28 just three weeks ago.

See Abacus’ latest numbers here, and the complete report from here.

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Since mid-May, Liberal support has ranged from 40% to 50% nationally — a ten-point spread that naturally stretches our level of comfort.

The NDP has climbed into double-digits according to every active polling firm except Léger.

As for the Conservatives, there is considerably more agreement. Recent polls place the party between 31% and 36%, a relatively healthy range.

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Let’s update the 338Canada federal projection.

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On Monday, the Angus Reid Institute released new polling on Canadians’ views of artificial intelligence (AI), and the results suggest the public remains deeply wary of the technology’s impact on workers, communities, and society at large.

Perhaps the most striking finding concerns employment. Canadians may be divided on politics, but they appear remarkably united on one aspect of AI: if companies use it to replace workers, they should pay a price.

Nearly four in five Canadians (79%) agree that companies replacing employees with AI should face higher taxes, while just 21% disagree.

Even when broken down by partisanship, support remains remarkably high across the board. Among Conservative voters, 72% support higher taxes on companies that replace workers with AI, compared to 86% of Liberals and 87% of New Democrats.

When it comes to the broader impact AI could have on the economy and society, Canadians continue to view the technology more negatively than positively.

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In one corner, we have a Liberal slump and an NDP surge. In the other corner, we have Liberal dominance and a listless NDP.

In both corners, the Conservatives are stuck.

But what’s really going on?

This week on The Numbers, Eric and Philippe try to make some sense of the latest polls that don’t seem to agree on what’s going on with either Mark Carney’s Liberals or Avi Lewis’s New Democrats.

We also break down the results of the B.C. Conservative leadership race and what it means for the province going forward.

Then, Philippe has a Quiz — and Eric is very confident. Maybe too confident.

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Well, so much for “signs of a (modest) NDP comeback”.

The latest federal poll from Léger, released Wednesday morning by the National Post, takes a real swing at that narrative.

Against all odds, Mark Carney’s government remains firmly atop Canadian public opinion as the country heads into the summer months. Despite a slowing economy, the absence of a trade agreement with the United States, and the rollback of several climate policies, little appears capable of slowing the Prime Minister’s momentum. Neither Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives nor Avi Lewis’s New Democrats seem able to crack the Liberal armour — at least for now.

As I noted over the past week (here and here), some polling firms active at the federal level had recently detected signs of modest erosion in support for Mark Carney, with some voters appearing to drift toward the NDP. The latest Léger survey, published Wednesday by the National Post, tells an entirely different story.

According to Léger, not only does the NDP remain stuck near its floor, but the Liberals have widened their lead over the Conservatives thanks to exceptionally strong support in Quebec and British Columbia.

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Nationally, the Liberals stand at 50% among decided and leaning voters, up two points since Léger’s previous survey in April. The Conservatives have slipped three points to 34%, while the Bloc Québécois and the NDP are tied for third place at 6% apiece.

If the national numbers are enough to raise eyebrows, the regional breakdowns are even more striking. In Quebec, the Liberals climb to 50%, fully 24 points ahead of the Bloc Québécois. In Ontario, the Liberal lead stands at 14 points over the Conservatives. On the Pacific coast, Léger measures Liberal support at 56% — nearly 30 points ahead of Pierre Poilievre’s CPC.

The 50% mark is particularly noteworthy. Few federal parties have reached that level in national polling over the past two decades.

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🍁Happy Tuesday, dear readers,

We wrote last week about how the numbers seemed to suggest (cautious wording on purpose) a possible NDP rebound (read about it here). The Nanos Research tracker not only showed the NDP back in double-digit national support, but also improved numbers for Avi Lewis on the preferred-prime-minister tracker.

Now, of course, we did not get carried away. Lewis stood at 7% (technically 6.5%), against 49% for Mark Carney and 24% for Pierre Poilievre. Nevertheless, the generic “NDP leader” stood at only 3% when Lewis won the party leadership in late March, and the party was consistently polling in the single digits nationally at the time.

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While this morning’s Nanos update showed no significant movement from last week, the latest numbers from Liaison Strategies’ two-week tracker did show the NDP climbing to its highest level of support since last year’s disastrous campaign.

Noise or early signs of a (modest) comeback?

Let’s dive into the numbers.

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🍁Happy Sunday, dear 338Canada readers,

No single storyline dominated Canadian politics this week, but there was no shortage of developments worth tracking. From new federal polling and looming by-elections in Montreal to Alberta referendum numbers and a new Conservative leader in British Columbia, here are a few items that caught my attention over the past seven days.

First, federally:

• The Conservatives have slipped to a new low in the 338Canada aggregate, reaching levels not seen since late 2022. There are modest signs of recovery for the NDP, but Avi Lewis and his team still have a long way to go. Meanwhile, the Liberals continue to hold a double-digit lead nationally.

• Laurier–Sainte-Marie LPC MP Steven Guilbeault called it quits last week and is expected to resign his seat in the coming months. That would trigger at least two Montreal by-elections, either this fall or early in 2027: Laurier–Sainte-Marie and neighbouring Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie, which will become vacant later this summer when NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice leaves federal politics to run for Québec solidaire in next fall's Quebec election. Both ridings were Bloc Québécois strongholds in the 1990s and early 2000s, but were swept up in Jack Layton's 2011 Orange Wave. While Guilbeault won LSM for the Liberals in 2019, the BQ has not been competitive in either riding since.

• Another MP has decided to leave the House of Commons to run in the Quebec election. Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton BQ MP Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay will seek the Parti Québécois nomination in the provincial riding of Saint-Hyacinthe.

• Outside of the usual Nanos and Liaison trackers, one federal poll was added to the pile last week, as Pallas Data released its latest national numbers: 45% LPC, 32% CPC, 11% NDP. Compared to Pallas’ previous survey back in January, the Liberals are up five points, and the Conservatives are down five points. Read Pallas’ report here with analysis from Pallas Data CEO .

There was also much action on the provincial scene:

• Get ready for months (and, frankly, years) of referendum chatter and polls coming out of Alberta. The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was the first to field a survey using the 37-word question chosen by Alberta Premier Danielle Smith. We covered it here. In short, Alberta separatism increasingly looks like a debate taking place within the Conservative coalition itself.

• ARI's numbers show that Liberal and federal NDP voters in Alberta (who accounted for 35% of the provincial electorate in last year's federal election) are almost unanimously pro-federation. Like, abnormally so. Among Liberal voters in the province, 99% would vote for Alberta to remain in Canada. Among 2025 NDP voters, the proportion is 96%. Even softball questions like “Do you like kittens?” doesn’t reach that much of a consensus.

• Among Conservative voters, however, the province is split down the middle: 48% would vote to remain in Canada, 48% would vote to leave the federation, and 4% remain undecided. Read the full ARI report here.

• Oh, and there was major news from the West Coast: the B.C. Conservative Party has a new permanent leader. Kerry-Lyne Findlay, a former CPC MP and Harper cabinet minister, now faces the task of leading the right-of-centre party into the next provincial election, scheduled for fall 2028. Findlay needed all four rounds to win a tight contest against former BC United vice-president Caroline Elliott. Former BC Liberal MLA Iain Black finished third.

• While the B.C. Conservatives have a real shot at winning the next provincial election, recent polling in British Columbia has yet to reach a consensus. Since the start of the year, polls have ranged from a nine-point NDP lead to a ten-point Conservative advantage. We will be watching closely to see whether the party's new permanent leader moves the needle in the coming months.

• Doug Ford bounce? New Ontario polling from Abacus Data measured Ford’s PCs climbing four points since last month, while the Ontario Liberals — in the midst of much infighting following the defeat of Nate Erskine-Smith in the Scarborough Southwest OLP nomination — dropped five points. the ONDP remains stable at 17% across the province. See Abacus’ numbers here, and read the full report from here.

Here is this week’s 338Canada federal update.

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Premier Danielle Smith has added a question on Alberta separation to the October 19, 2026, referendum ballot, a move that will have repercussions for the country and the province.

But is it primarily a debate being held amongst the supporters of her own party?

This week on The Numbers, we discuss what the polls suggest could be the motivations behind Smith’s referendum push, as well as what it could mean for the future of the United Conservative Party — and Pierre Poilievre’s federal Conservatives, too.

We also chat about the latest federal polls and what they say about support for the Liberals after what looked like a dip last week.

Then, we break down new polls out of Ontario and Nova Scotia and briefly chat about this weekend’s B.C. Conservative leadership race. Finally, Philippe has a few trivia questions about past referendums in Canada.

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You can watch the episode on YouTube, which features a long cameo of Eric’s cat just above his shoulder :

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The latest Nanos Research tracker update, based on interviews conducted from May 1 to 22, 2026, measures Liberal support at 41%, down one point from last week and, more notably, four points lower than Nanos’ previous four-week wave.

The Conservatives remain stable at 33% nationally, while the NDP stands at 13%.

That 13% figure matches the New Democrats’ best showing in the Nanos tracker since last year’s election.

Over the past year, Nanos has generally been somewhat more favourable to the NDP than most other polling firms. The tracker has regularly placed the party in double-digit territory since the start of the year, whereas firms such as Léger, Abacus Data, and Ipsos have not measured NDP support above 9% nationally since the election campaign.

Still, this morning’s update contains another encouraging sign for New Democrats: Avi Lewis reaches 7% in Nanos’ preferred-prime-minister tracker, his highest score since winning the party leadership in late March.

The 7% figure is also the strongest result recorded for an NDP leader in the Nanos tracker since March 2025, just before the party’s campaign collapse.

Of course, these numbers remain modest by historical standards, and there is not yet enough evidence to speak of a genuine “Lewis effect.” One data point does not make a trend.

Nevertheless, it is worth monitoring whether Lewis can gradually rebuild the party’s standing. When he took the reins of the NDP two months ago, the NDP leader option stood at just 3% in the preferred-prime-minister tracker. Today, it sits at 7%.

Click here to access the charts for this week’s Nanos update, or here to read the public Nanos report.

More to come this week.🍁

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🍁Happy Monday morning, dear 338Canada readers,

We discussed Alberta separatism in yesterday's 338 Sunday Update, and lo and behold, a new poll from the Angus Reid Institute (ARI) landed this morning.

The survey measures support both for separation itself and for "beginning the process" of separation using the wording proposed by Premier Danielle Smith in her 37-word referendum question.

When asked Smith's question verbatim, 60% of Albertans oppose beginning the process of holding a binding referendum on separation from Canada, while 35% support it.

Majorities in both Calgary (58%) and Edmonton (73%) reject the proposal. Outside the province's two largest cities, however, opinion is evenly divided, with 48% supporting the idea and 48% opposing it.

Albertans under the age of 55 also reject the proposal by comfortable margins. Among voters aged 18 to 34, 64% oppose beginning the process while 27% support it. Among those aged 35 to 54, the split stands at 65% to 34%.

The numbers tighten notably among older Albertans. Among voters aged 55 and over, 51% oppose the proposal while 43% support it.

These figures suggest a clear preference for remaining within Canada. However, the margin appears somewhat narrower than what other recent polls have found when asking directly about Alberta independence.

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ARI then asked a far more straightforward question:

Should Alberta leave Canada and become its own independent country or stay in Canada?

The results were even more decisive.

Support for remaining in Canada rises to 67%, while support for independence falls to 30%. The pro-Canada side’s lead expands from 25 points to 37 points.

Majorities in every region, age group and gender category prefer remaining within Canada.

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🍁Happy Sunday, dear 338Canada readers,

Well, just as we thought things might finally be entering a quieter season — at least until this fall's Quebec election — Alberta Premier Danielle Smith stepped in and promised a question on Alberta separation this fall. Not the question, mind you, but a question on whether to pursue the question.

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Since we are doing this, you may as well bookmark the Alberta Separatism Tracker on 338Canada Alberta here. More will be added in the coming week, including demographic and regional data on support for and opposition to Alberta separatism. The data remain somewhat sparse for now, but I have a feeling that won't last long.

Since February, eleven publicly available surveys have measured Albertans' views on separation. Despite using different methodologies and sample compositions, every poll has found a clear majority opposed to leaving Canada.

Support for separation ranges from 17% to 31%, while opposition consistently lands consistently above 60% (and sometimes above 70%).

Naturally, opinions can evolve during a referendum campaign (Quebec voters know this all too well). But if a referendum on Alberta separation were held tomorrow, the polling evidence suggests it would be headed for a decisive defeat.

Still, with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith now committed to holding a vote this fall, the issue is unlikely to disappear from the political conversation anytime soon.

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Mark Carney’s Liberals continue to hold their lead in the polls over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, while Avi Lewis and the New Democrats have yet to breakthrough.

As the summer slowly approaches, we look ahead into our crystal balls at where the polls might stand later in the year with a game of Buy or Sell — are any of the parties and their leaders over-priced in the polls compared to where they’ll be in three months, or are there bargains to be had?

This week on The Numbers, we set our expectations for the coming months as we return to a game we last played in September. We also dissect the latest federal polling numbers and take a look at what could be a CAQ comeback in Quebec.

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The CAQ may not have had its final say just yet.

A Léger poll in Quebec, published Wednesday in Quebecor media outlets, confirms the resurgence of the Coalition Avenir Québec following the first month of the “Fréchette era.” While the Parti Québécois and the Quebec Liberal Party are still vying for the lead province-wide, a reinvigorated CAQ is now closing in on them.

Among the francophone majority, the CAQ has surged ahead of the QLP with 26% support and is closing in on the PQ, which remains in the lead with 37%.

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I’ve written this in previous columns, but it’s worth repeating: there is no recent precedent for such a race in Quebec. Based on Léger’s figures, the five main political parties would all win a share of the seats—a situation not seen since 1976. In that election, won by René Lévesque’s PQ, the Parti Québécois, the Liberal Party, the Union Nationale, the Ralliement Créditiste, and the Parti National Populaire all had members elected to the National Assembly.

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Are we witnessing the beginning of the end of Mark Carney’s second political honeymoon?

Although the federal Liberals continue to lead their Conservative rivals in public support, new data from Liaison Strategies suggest the government’s approval ratings have taken a hit in recent weeks. Naturally, nuance is key here: net approval remains comfortably in positive territory, but the recent movement in the numbers can hardly be dismissed as mere statistical noise.

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According to the latest Liaison update — a two-week rolling poll fielded from May 4 to 16, 2026 — 56% of respondents approve of Mark Carney’s performance as Prime Minister of Canada, against 36% who expressed disapproval.

However, if we go back to Liaison’s previous two-week wave (mid-field date of April 26, 2026), approval stood at 60%, while disapproval sat at 32% — a four-point shift on both measures. In the prior wave (April 12, 2026), approval measured 62%, against only 29% disapproval.

In the span of one month, Carney’s net approval has dropped from +32 to +20.

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🍁Happy Sunday morning, dear 338Canada readers,

I hope you are all having a lovely long weekend. Happy Victoria Day to those who celebrate it, and bonne Fête des Patriotes to my Quebec readers.

I am taking the long weekend to rest and visit my elderly mother.

A full 338 Sunday Update will return next week.

You can still find this week’s federal projection update on the main 338Canada page here.

Thank you to all readers and subscribers for supporting 338Canada.🍁❤️

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This week’s court ruling on the Alberta separation petition has only raised more questions about whether the province will be holding a referendum on independence this fall. Whatever next steps Premier Danielle Smith takes will come with a great degree of risk — for her party, for the province and for Canada.

This week on The Numbers, Eric and Philippe discuss some new polling numbers out of Alberta and what they say about the path forward for the UCP government.

We also chat about Ontario Liberal leadership hopeful Nate Erskine-Smith’s nomination defeat in Scarborough Southwest and recent polls that show Doug Ford’s Ontario PCs losing support.

Plus, we have new federal and Quebec polling numbers to dissect before closing with a by-election-themed Quiz.

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Nothing is set in stone in the Quebec political landscape with less than five months before the general election.

I joined CBC News Quebec anchor Debra Arbec to discuss the latest numbers out of Quebec, including an updated seat projection.

Visit the 338Canada Quebec page for all the numbers of this provincial projection. Numbers from the latest Quebec poll from Pallas Data are available here.

Thanks to readers and subscribers of 338Canada for your support.

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New Premier Christine Fréchette appears to have gotten off to a strong start, according to a new Quebec poll by Pallas Data conducted for 338Canada and L’actualité.

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While the road ahead remains steep for the leader of the Coalition Avenir Québec, the numbers suggest Fréchette has given her party a measurable boost in public support.

And it is the Quebec Liberal Party — along with its leader Charles Milliard — that appears to be taking a hit.

Conducted from May 7 to 9, 2026, this new Pallas survey shows a significant tightening between first and third place. The Parti Québécois remains in the lead with 29% support among decided and leaning voters, unchanged from Pallas’s previous poll in April.

The Quebec Liberals, meanwhile, have dropped four points — a shift beyond the poll’s margin of error — and now sit at 28% province-wide. As we will see later, the party’s decline appears to coincide with weakening numbers for its leader.

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🍁Happy Sunday, dear 338Canada readers,

As we stated in last week’s update, federal numbers appear to have hit a plateau of late — and it’s an especially high one for the Liberals. The Conservatives, however, appear to have kept losing ground in the aggregate and are now hitting new lows, just as government approval continues to reach new highs.

Eric and I discussed the latest numbers — with a particular focus on age breakdowns — in last week’s episode of The Numbers.

Much has been said and written in recent weeks about Pierre Poilievre’s leadership and the state of the Conservatives in Canadian public opinion. We won’t dive into editorials here, but the data speak for themselves: this may be the lowest point for Poilievre’s CPC since 2022.

Let’s summarize the past week in the polls.

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Abacus Data: Liberals Lead by 10 points

The newest federal numbers from Abacus were released this morning, and they were grim for the Conservatives: Mark Carney’s Liberals stand at 46% — tied for their highest level of support in Abacus polling since at least 2019. The Conservatives take 36% and the NDP 8%.

Regionally, the Liberals hold a 13-point advantage over the Conservatives in Ontario and a 22-point lead over the Bloc Québécois in Quebec. In British Columbia, Abacus also places the Liberals comfortably ahead: LPC 47%, CPC 35%.

Has Abacus followed the broader trends measured by other Canadian pollsters since the new year? While topline numbers still differ somewhat from firm to firm, the simple answer is yes. In January, Abacus measured a statistical tie between the main parties (see chart below). Since then, the Liberals have climbed into the mid-40s, while the Conservatives now sit closer to the mid-30s than the high-30s.

This movement in the polls matters enormously in the national picture. In the April 2025 election, 47 seats were won by either the Liberals or Conservatives by margins smaller than five points against one another (25 won by the Conservatives, 22 by the Liberals). Although movement inside these ridings would not necessarily be uniform, many of those Conservative-held seats would now fall within Liberal reach — while comparatively few of the Liberals’ narrow 2025 gains would become accessible to the Conservatives.

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📊Happy Saturday morning, dear 338Canada readers,

I was invited to the Culture Lab podcast last week, a show hosted by and Gabe De Roche, to discuss the latest numbers in Quebec politics and the trends on support for sovereignty.

Listen to the episode on any podcast app (such as Apple Podcast) or watch the episode on YouTube:

Don’t miss the 338 Sunday Update tomorrow.

Thank you to all readers and subscribers for supporting 338Canada.🍁❤️

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